PHI beat DET 5–3. Expected goals were close to even (PHI 2.7, DET 2.5), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Owen Tippett scored at 12:22 of the second, moving PHI’s win probability from 69% to 85%. John Gibson allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PHI–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:07 |  PHI | Owen Tippett from Trevor Zegras | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 12:22 | PHI | Owen Tippett from Denver Barkey, Jamie Drysdale | 2–0 | 69% → 85% |
| P2 16:08 | PHI | Noah CatesPP from Matvei Michkov, Travis Konecny | 3–0 | 88% → 97% |
| P3 7:19 | PHI | Owen TippettPP from Jamie Drysdale, Travis Konecny | 4–0 | 99% → 100% |
| P3 13:43 |  DET | Mason Appleton from Justin Faulk | 4–1 | 0% → 0% |
| P3 15:10 | DET | Alex DeBrincat from Patrick Kane, Moritz Seider | 4–2 | 0% → 1% |
| P3 16:14 | DET | Lucas RaymondPP from Moritz Seider, Patrick Kane | 4–3 | 1% → 11% |
| P3 17:56 | PHI | Sean CouturierEN from Owen Tippett | 5–3 | 92% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Tippett R | 16:52 | 3 | 1 | +0.97 | −0.01 | +0.99 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Trevor Zegras C | 18:26 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.29 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Denver Barkey C | 14:58 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.27 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Couturier C | 15:35 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.05 | |
| Noah Cates L | 12:59 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.02 | +0.23 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 23:27 | +0.16 | +0.16 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 17:04 | +0.11 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Matvei Michkov R | 12:58 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.04 | −0.08 | +0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Garnet Hathaway R | 12:12 | +0.09 | +0.20 | −0.00 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam York D | 21:59 | +0.07 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Drysdale D | 19:37 | 2 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.09 | +0.29 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Sanheim D | 26:00 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Bump L | 13:26 | +0.02 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Konecny R | 17:18 | 2 | +0.02 | +0.09 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nick Seeler D | 14:43 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Grundstrom R | 11:22 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Emil Andrae D | 14:14 | −0.20 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 13:43 | −0.27 | +0.10 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar G | 82:31 | +0.12 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Raymond L | 21:09 | 1 | +0.96 | −0.06 | +0.81 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mason Appleton C | 10:24 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.06 | +0.41 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Dominik Shine R | 10:04 | +0.04 | +0.07 | −0.08 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Emmitt Finnie C | 13:11 | +0.02 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex DeBrincat R | 23:18 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.09 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Moritz Seider D | 28:51 | 2 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Kane R | 21:22 | 2 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.18 | +0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Perron L | 9:21 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 13:16 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carter Mazur L | 10:32 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 18:30 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Kasper C | 13:51 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Albert Johansson D | 13:52 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 18:29 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Copp C | 21:49 | −0.21 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Simon Edvinsson D | 21:11 | −0.23 | −0.11 | −0.18 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 16:52 | −0.29 | −0.20 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 19:01 | −0.75 | −0.05 | −0.40 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 9:28 | +0.26 |
| John Gibson G | 47:19 | −1.51 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.