BUF beat SEA 3–2 in a shootout. BUF also won the expected-goals battle 4.0 to 3.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Peyton Krebs scored at 11:39 of the third, moving BUF’s win probability from 18% to 52%. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen saved 1.8 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SEA–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:42 |  SEA | Chandler Stephenson from Kaapo Kakko, Bobby McMann | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 13:18 | SEA | Bobby McMann from Kaapo Kakko, Chandler Stephenson | 2–0 | 70% → 86% |
| P2 15:55 |  BUF | Rasmus DahlinPP from Tage Thompson, Jack Quinn | 2–1 | 13% → 29% |
| P3 11:39 | BUF | Peyton Krebs from Zach Benson | 2–2 | 18% → 52% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chandler Stephenson C | 23:03 | 1 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.26 | +0.81 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Bobby McMann C | 20:14 | 1 | 1 | +0.28 | −0.23 | +0.50 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Kaapo Kakko R | 17:02 | 2 | +0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.11 | |
| Shane Wright C | 3:36 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lindgren D | 14:07 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 12:54 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 19:30 | −0.09 | −0.19 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jared McCann L | 15:16 | −0.12 | −0.21 | −0.15 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryker Evans D | 22:20 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Meyers C | 11:44 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 23:07 | −0.27 | −0.29 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oscar Fisker Molgaard C | 10:40 | −0.32 | +0.15 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 14:54 | −0.32 | −0.12 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Berkly Catton C | 17:50 | −0.45 | −0.08 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brandon Montour D | 26:25 | −0.46 | −0.12 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matty Beniers C | 21:36 | −0.69 | −0.25 | −0.45 | −0.02 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 18:37 | −0.71 | −0.23 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.39 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 17:54 | −0.74 | −0.06 | −0.37 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.32 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 65:00 | +0.12 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Krebs C | 15:17 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.11 | +0.58 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | |
| Tage Thompson C | 24:21 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.41 | −0.48 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.66 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 25:10 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.27 | +0.66 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.39 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Quinn R | 17:06 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.23 | −0.36 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.41 | |
| Bowen Byram D | 21:29 | +0.24 | +0.27 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Norris C | 15:08 | +0.18 | +0.28 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Conor Timmins D | 16:40 | +0.10 | +0.12 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 24:32 | +0.05 | +0.19 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 16:44 | +0.04 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | ||
| Josh Doan R | 13:21 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Sam Carrick C | 10:50 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.10 | −0.00 | ||
| Zach Benson L | 14:39 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.09 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Owen Power D | 20:32 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Kozak C | 7:51 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 10:44 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.29 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 26:14 | −0.14 | +0.09 | −0.28 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Stanley D | 12:17 | −0.15 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 14:05 | −0.18 | +0.14 | −0.35 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G | 65:00 | +1.76 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.