SJS beat CBJ 3–2. SJS also won the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Igor Chernyshov scored at 18:35 of the third, moving SJS’s win probability from 50% to 94%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:31 | CBJ | Denton Mateychuk from Adam Fantilli | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 17:17 | SJS | Igor Chernyshov from Will Smith | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 12:09 | CBJ | Cole Sillinger from Ivan Provorov | 1–2 | 53% → 74% |
| P3 0:57 | SJS | Macklin CelebriniPP from Dmitry Orlov, Alexander Wennberg | 2–2 | 23% → 48% |
| P3 18:35 | SJS | Igor Chernyshov from Will Smith, Macklin Celebrini | 3–2 | 50% → 94% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Igor Chernyshov L | 15:31 | 2 | +1.54 | +0.12 | +1.43 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Macklin Celebrini C | 19:42 | 1 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.20 | +0.32 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 |
| Mario Ferraro D | 20:58 | +0.24 | +0.23 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 14:48 | +0.15 | +0.23 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Desharnais D | 19:37 | +0.14 | +0.19 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 22:13 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shakir Mukhamadullin D | 20:30 | +0.06 | +0.18 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 17:37 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 16:47 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| William Eklund L | 16:12 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Dickinson D | 17:23 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 11:56 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Adam Gaudette R | 9:41 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Will Smith C | 19:14 | 2 | −0.20 | +0.12 | −0.33 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zack Ostapchuk C | 8:58 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Michael Misa C | 15:09 | −0.25 | +0.13 | −0.40 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 16:52 | −0.27 | +0.03 | −0.29 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Collin Graf R | 15:21 | −0.45 | +0.36 | −1.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Nedeljkovic G | 59:31 | +0.47 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denton Mateychuk D | 14:57 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.01 | +0.82 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Sillinger C | 16:23 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.01 | +0.64 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Isac Lundeström C | 12:49 | +0.08 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 19:09 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 4:03 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Christiansen D | 9:43 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kent Johnson C | 13:37 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Boone Jenner C | 17:17 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.06 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 25:39 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.33 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Monahan C | 15:34 | −0.25 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 16:52 | −0.27 | −0.29 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Garland R | 12:41 | −0.39 | −0.21 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Werenski D | 30:51 | −0.39 | −0.29 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirill Marchenko R | 20:50 | −0.41 | −0.01 | −0.41 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 18:26 | −0.43 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Olivier R | 15:40 | −0.44 | −0.24 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Marchment L | 14:18 | −0.46 | −0.25 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Fantilli C | 19:58 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.23 | −0.24 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 59:10 | +0.83 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.