NYI beat FLA 5–2. NYI also won the expected-goals battle 4.3 to 2.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Brayden Schenn scored at 12:09 of the second, moving NYI’s win probability from 31% to 53%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:06 | FLA | Matthew Tkachuk from Seth Jones | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 14:03 | FLA | Matthew Tkachuk unassisted | 2–0 | 64% → 78% |
| P2 5:28 | NYI | Marc Gatcomb from Adam Pelech, Scott Mayfield | 2–1 | 18% → 33% |
| P2 12:09 | NYI | Brayden Schenn from Calum Ritchie, Matthew Schaefer | 2–2 | 31% → 53% |
| P2 14:52 | NYI | Simon HolmstromPP from Matthew Schaefer, Brayden Schenn | 2–3 | 54% → 75% |
| P2 17:00 | NYI | Emil Heineman from Anders Lee, Brayden Schenn | 2–4 | 76% → 91% |
| P2 17:57 | NYI | Casey Cizikas from Carson Soucy, Marc Gatcomb | 2–5 | 91% → 98% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 23:43 | 2 | +1.42 | −0.04 | +1.45 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Aaron Ekblad D | 24:07 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Nosek L | 13:47 | −0.09 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 12:29 | −0.10 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 23:06 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 11:27 | −0.12 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Studnicka C | 7:32 | −0.12 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Reinhardt L | 11:12 | −0.18 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mackie Samoskevich R | 16:51 | −0.19 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Boqvist C | 14:50 | −0.19 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 20:18 | −0.19 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Benning D | 14:30 | −0.22 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 25:21 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gustav Forsling D | 21:25 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nolan Foote L | 10:56 | −0.28 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Donovan Sebrango D | 14:29 | −0.38 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 21:11 | −0.52 | −0.05 | −0.43 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 12:49 | −0.62 | −0.16 | −0.41 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Daniil Tarasov G | 54:45 | −0.51 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc Gatcomb C | 9:44 | 1 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.07 | +0.89 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Emil Heineman L | 17:56 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.08 | +0.65 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Holmstrom R | 15:33 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.04 | +0.46 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Casey Cizikas C | 10:50 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.06 | +0.29 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Brayden Schenn C | 19:22 | 1 | 2 | +0.28 | +0.24 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Ondrej Palat L | 10:47 | +0.27 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle MacLean C | 9:47 | +0.24 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Calum Ritchie C | 17:43 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.22 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathew Barzal C | 17:52 | +0.13 | +0.21 | −0.29 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 11:54 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Boqvist D | 12:07 | +0.11 | +0.15 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 14:25 | +0.11 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.10 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 22:04 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.23 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carson Soucy D | 20:15 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.20 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Pulock D | 21:15 | −0.07 | +0.05 | −0.17 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 18:17 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.07 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Schaefer D | 27:51 | 2 | −0.33 | +0.11 | −0.43 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bo Horvat C | 20:18 | −0.37 | +0.03 | −0.45 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 60:00 | −0.27 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.