EDM beat VGK 4–3 in overtime. EDM also won the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Evan Bouchard scored at 3:10 of overtime, moving EDM’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Adin Hill allowed 1.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:52 |  EDM | Matt Savoie from Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 4:09 |  VGK | Mark Stone from Jack Eichel, Ivan Barbashev | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 7:27 | EDM | Connor McDavid from Vasily Podkolzin, Mattias Ekholm | 2–1 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 14:51 | VGK | Mark Stone unassisted | 2–2 | 30% → 53% |
| P2 16:42 | EDM | Zach Hyman unassisted | 3–2 | 47% → 71% |
| P3 6:21 | VGK | Ivan Barbashev from Pavel Dorofeyev, Shea Theodore | 3–3 | 23% → 52% |
| OT 3:10 | EDM | Evan Bouchard from Connor McDavid | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid C | 22:12 | 1 | 2 | +1.01 | +0.16 | +0.73 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Evan Bouchard D | 23:31 | 1 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.34 | +0.65 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Zach Hyman L | 19:10 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.19 | +0.69 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Savoie C | 18:40 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.12 | +0.55 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Roslovic C | 14:34 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Roby Jarventie L | 6:39 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 18:50 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.09 | −0.12 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ty Emberson D | 14:14 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Jones L | 7:41 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 15:35 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Samanski C | 13:28 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jake Walman D | 17:48 | −0.09 | +0.13 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 10:20 | −0.10 | +0.12 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 18:33 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jason Dickinson C | 15:48 | −0.35 | −0.10 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 25:20 | −0.44 | −0.31 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 19:48 | −0.65 | −0.18 | −0.45 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Connor Murphy D | 23:24 | −0.73 | −0.72 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Ingram G | 63:10 | +0.04 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Stone R | 23:40 | 2 | +1.69 | +0.20 | +1.25 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 17:16 | 1 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.11 | +0.53 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Nic Dowd C | 8:14 | +0.19 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 22:17 | +0.19 | +0.19 | −0.24 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 26:24 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.24 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kaedan Korczak D | 8:21 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 8:47 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Cole Smith L | 9:33 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 19:46 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 13:42 | −0.14 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 23:05 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.12 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Hanifin D | 22:57 | −0.17 | +0.04 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 19:10 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.05 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Sissons C | 13:31 | −0.23 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 25:08 | −0.27 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Howden C | 12:07 | −0.33 | −0.16 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 15:43 | −0.36 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 18:44 | −0.41 | +0.22 | −0.66 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Adin Hill G | 62:20 | −1.10 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.