WSH beat UTA 7–4. WSH lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 4.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Anthony Beauvillier scored on the power play at 2:43 of the third, moving WSH’s win probability from 49% to 74%. Vitek Vanecek allowed 3.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–UTA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:07 | WSH | Ivan Miroshnichenko from Hendrix Lapierre, Jakob Chychrun | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 13:04 | UTA | Dylan GuentherPP from Clayton Keller, Mikhail Sergachev | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 16:59 | UTA | Dylan Guenther from Clayton Keller, Mikhail Sergachev | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P1 19:53 | UTA | Logan CooleyPP from Nick Schmaltz, Mikhail Sergachev | 1–3 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 5:01 | WSH | Alex Ovechkin from Rasmus Sandin, Martin Fehérváry | 2–3 | 13% → 27% |
| P2 11:28 | WSH | Alex Ovechkin from Dylan Strome, Trevor van Riemsdyk | 3–3 | 26% → 47% |
| P3 2:43 | WSH | Anthony BeauvillierPP from Cole Hutson, Connor McMichael | 4–3 | 49% → 74% |
| P3 6:02 | WSH | Rasmus Sandin from Anthony Beauvillier | 5–3 | 76% → 93% |
| P3 8:06 | UTA | MacKenzie Weegar from Clayton Keller, Alexander Kerfoot | 5–4 | 6% → 22% |
| P3 9:54 | WSH | Ivan Miroshnichenko from Jakob Chychrun | 6–4 | 80% → 95% |
| P3 19:54 | WSH | Alex OvechkinEN from Dylan Strome | 7–4 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivan Miroshnichenko L | 9:45 | 2 | +1.74 | −0.03 | +1.77 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Ovechkin L | 18:27 | 3 | +1.52 | +0.02 | +1.46 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Sandin D | 19:42 | 1 | 1 | +0.50 | −0.29 | +0.82 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 17:24 | 1 | 1 | +0.33 | −0.27 | +0.58 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Matt Roy D | 19:37 | +0.32 | +0.18 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Hutson D | 14:56 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Martin Fehérváry D | 20:52 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Hendrix Lapierre C | 9:14 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 15:56 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Connor McMichael L | 16:45 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Brandon Duhaime R | 10:35 | −0.11 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 18:48 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.17 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jakob Chychrun D | 20:22 | 2 | −0.15 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Strome C | 18:07 | 2 | −0.28 | −0.02 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Aliaksei Protas L | 20:03 | −0.34 | −0.00 | −0.34 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Justin Sourdif C | 14:30 | −0.38 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Tom Wilson R | 11:41 | −0.46 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Leonard R | 15:22 | −0.57 | −0.16 | −0.39 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson G | 60:00 | +0.27 |
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Guenther R | 21:00 | 2 | +1.06 | +0.11 | +0.95 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 20:27 | 1 | +0.96 | +0.24 | +0.75 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Logan Cooley C | 20:25 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.13 | +0.32 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.05 | |
| Jack McBain C | 10:05 | +0.16 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 16:46 | +0.14 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 26:55 | 3 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Tanev L | 6:32 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniil But L | 9:08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 14:03 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Marino D | 17:53 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 15:23 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 16:19 | −0.14 | +0.04 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Durzi D | 14:37 | −0.16 | +0.10 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 22:54 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.19 | −0.46 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 23:36 | 3 | −0.29 | +0.24 | −0.38 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 13:42 | 1 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 10:11 | −0.32 | +0.13 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 14:59 | −0.35 | −0.05 | −0.28 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 7:17 | +0.02 |
| Vitek Vanecek G | 49:54 | −3.92 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.