BOS beat BUF 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (BOS 2.3, BUF 2.6), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Pavel Zacha scored at 0:38 of overtime, moving BOS’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen allowed 1.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BOS–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:07 |  BOS | David Pastrnak from Fraser Minten, Marat Khusnutdinov | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 15:18 | BUF | Jason ZuckerPP from Tage Thompson, Jack Quinn | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 9:45 | BOS | Viktor Arvidsson from David Pastrnak, Nikita Zadorov | 2–1 | 47% → 68% |
| P3 5:21 | BUF | Zach Benson unassisted | 2–2 | 23% → 53% |
| P3 5:54 | BUF | Jason ZuckerPP from Tage Thompson | 2–3 | 53% → 80% |
| P3 14:00 | BOS | Casey Mittelstadt from Jonathan Aspirot, Pavel Zacha | 3–3 | 13% → 49% |
| OT 0:38 | BOS | Pavel Zacha from David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pavel Zacha C | 14:33 | 1 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.10 | +0.81 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 13:32 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.04 | +0.60 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 14:28 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.06 | +0.73 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| David Pastrnak R | 21:56 | 1 | 2 | +0.59 | −0.04 | +0.61 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Tanner Jeannot L | 7:32 | +0.20 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Aspirot D | 17:41 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Hampus Lindholm D | 20:10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Peeke D | 17:15 | −0.01 | +0.07 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marat Khusnutdinov C | 18:00 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Morgan Geekie C | 15:53 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Charlie McAvoy D | 24:45 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.09 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Zadorov D | 19:58 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mason Lohrei D | 17:29 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Kastelic C | 9:58 | −0.26 | −0.03 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lukas Reichel L | 14:59 | −0.31 | −0.08 | −0.21 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 10:45 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.31 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Fraser Minten C | 20:14 | 1 | −0.45 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Elias Lindholm C | 16:41 | −0.47 | −0.07 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joonas Korpisalo G | 60:38 | −0.28 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Zucker L | 15:58 | 2 | +1.29 | −0.01 | +1.31 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Benson L | 11:35 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.07 | +0.65 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Owen Power D | 21:30 | +0.13 | +0.16 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 16:23 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan McLeod C | 17:12 | +0.09 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 12:01 | +0.05 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 21:16 | +0.04 | +0.09 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 20:15 | −0.01 | +0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Stanley D | 14:44 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Carrick C | 10:26 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Conor Timmins D | 15:30 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Ostlund C | 14:31 | −0.12 | +0.07 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Norris C | 16:49 | −0.13 | +0.14 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 17:49 | −0.16 | +0.07 | −0.25 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 13:32 | −0.19 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Doan R | 14:06 | −0.27 | −0.20 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 18:44 | 2 | −0.39 | −0.05 | −0.31 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 23:45 | −0.52 | −0.05 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G | 60:26 | −1.61 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.