CHI beat NYI 4–3. CHI lost the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 5.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Ilya Mikheyev scored at 18:06 of the first, moving CHI’s win probability from 47% to 65%. Arvid Soderblom saved 2.8 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CHI–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:49 | NYI | Anders Lee from Matthew Schaefer, Bo Horvat | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 12:46 |  CHI | Nick Lardis from Frank Nazar, Tyler Bertuzzi | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 18:06 | CHI | Ilya Mikheyev from Anton Frondell | 2–1 | 47% → 65% |
| P1 19:31 | CHI | Tyler Bertuzzi from Alex Vlasic, Nick Lardis | 3–1 | 65% → 80% |
| P2 6:02 | CHI | Frank Nazar from Nick Lardis | 4–1 | 83% → 94% |
| P3 8:45 | NYI | Simon Holmstrom from Scott Mayfield | 4–2 | 1% → 5% |
| P3 16:37 | NYI | Calum Ritchie from Carson Soucy, Mathew Barzal | 4–3 | 1% → 10% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 19:33 | 1 | +0.86 | −0.10 | +0.76 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Lardis L | 14:12 | 1 | 2 | +0.77 | +0.07 | +0.72 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Frank Nazar C | 16:43 | 1 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.08 | +0.77 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 19:15 | 1 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.07 | +0.74 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Louis Crevier D | 19:48 | +0.03 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Lafferty C | 8:11 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Ethan Del Mastro D | 11:26 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 13:09 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Kaiser D | 19:46 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Rinzel D | 17:20 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 12:12 | −0.10 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Landon Slaggert L | 7:39 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Greene C | 18:29 | −0.22 | −0.34 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.06 | ||
| Ryan Donato C | 15:51 | −0.24 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Alex Vlasic D | 25:11 | 1 | −0.42 | −0.25 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anton Frondell C | 15:43 | 1 | −0.47 | −0.23 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Artyom Levshunov D | 23:12 | −0.49 | −0.27 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Bedard C | 19:53 | −0.51 | −0.15 | −0.31 | +0.02 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Arvid Soderblom G | 60:00 | +2.77 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anders Lee C | 17:39 | 1 | +1.06 | +0.22 | +0.62 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Calum Ritchie C | 17:00 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.08 | +0.70 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Holmstrom R | 14:56 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.08 | +0.51 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Emil Heineman L | 17:27 | +0.30 | +0.15 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 11:05 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 6:09 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 20:11 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.07 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Boqvist D | 17:57 | +0.00 | +0.10 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 14:06 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.12 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 18:05 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle MacLean C | 7:28 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 18:29 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Gatcomb C | 7:06 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 15:04 | −0.37 | +0.05 | −0.43 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Matthew Schaefer D | 31:59 | 1 | −0.39 | +0.38 | −0.77 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Pelech D | 21:58 | −0.51 | +0.20 | −0.34 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 19:32 | 1 | −0.59 | +0.10 | −0.70 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bo Horvat C | 22:03 | 1 | −0.88 | +0.27 | −1.19 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 37:46 | +0.03 |
| David Rittich G | 20:00 | −1.90 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.