OTT beat DET 3–2. OTT lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Brady Tkachuk scored on the power play at 17:15 of the first, moving OTT’s win probability from 48% to 65%. Linus Ullmark saved 1.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 17:15 | OTT | Brady TkachukPP from Tim Stützle, Carter Yakemchuk | 1–0 | 48% → 65% |
| P2 9:28 | OTT | Carter Yakemchuk from Artem Zub | 2–0 | 68% → 84% |
| P2 11:05 | OTT | Lars Eller from Brady Tkachuk | 3–0 | 85% → 95% |
| P2 14:50 | DET | Dominik Shine from Simon Edvinsson, Moritz Seider | 3–1 | 4% → 13% |
| P3 4:13 | DET | Dylan LarkinPP from Alex DeBrincat, Lucas Raymond | 3–2 | 9% → 25% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter Yakemchuk D | 12:46 | 1 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.07 | +0.83 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brady Tkachuk L | 15:48 | 1 | 1 | +0.79 | −0.02 | +0.79 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Lars Eller C | 10:23 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.03 | +0.73 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Michael Amadio R | 18:57 | +0.08 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 12:20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jorian Donovan D | 4:42 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 15:13 | −0.09 | +0.08 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Kleven D | 28:11 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 10:04 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 25:10 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Claude Giroux R | 13:23 | −0.15 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 19:06 | −0.15 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolas Matinpalo D | 19:57 | −0.26 | +0.07 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Spence D | 26:24 | −0.32 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 10:03 | −0.35 | −0.11 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 13:41 | −0.39 | −0.01 | −0.40 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ridly Greig C | 18:45 | −0.44 | +0.11 | −0.55 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 17:33 | 1 | −0.71 | −0.33 | −0.37 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 60:00 | +1.02 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominik Shine R | 5:17 | 1 | +0.99 | −0.00 | +0.81 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Larkin C | 22:38 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.13 | +0.30 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Andrew Copp C | 19:50 | +0.36 | +0.16 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Lucas Raymond L | 22:04 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.15 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 9:39 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 18:43 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Kasper C | 11:32 | −0.09 | +0.08 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Albert Johansson D | 10:52 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 14:51 | −0.10 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Patrick Kane R | 19:41 | −0.10 | +0.05 | −0.19 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 21:53 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Moritz Seider D | 28:38 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.24 | −0.38 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Emmitt Finnie C | 17:12 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| David Perron L | 11:40 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| James van Riemsdyk L | 10:28 | −0.22 | +0.03 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Appleton C | 11:16 | −0.22 | +0.04 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex DeBrincat R | 21:19 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.10 | −0.42 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Edvinsson D | 21:32 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 58:16 | −0.44 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.