ANA beat BUF 6–5 in overtime. ANA also won the expected-goals battle 4.2 to 3.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Troy Terry scored at 1:29 of overtime, moving ANA’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Alex Lyon allowed 2.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:36 |  BUF | Alex Tuch from Owen Power | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 9:27 | ANA | Chris KreiderPP from Leo Carlsson | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 12:23 | ANA | Jackson LaCombePP from Mason McTavish, Beckett Sennecke | 1–2 | 54% → 70% |
| P1 17:14 | BUF | Josh Doan from Noah Ostlund, Bowen Byram | 2–2 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 2:35 | ANA | Beckett Sennecke from Jackson LaCombe | 2–3 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 15:40 | ANA | Troy Terry from Tim Washe, Olen Zellweger | 2–4 | 75% → 90% |
| P3 4:40 | BUF | Jack Quinn from Rasmus Dahlin, Zach Benson | 3–4 | 6% → 21% |
| P3 10:05 | BUF | Owen Power from Ryan McLeod | 4–4 | 17% → 48% |
| P3 11:37 | BUF | Zach Benson from Rasmus Dahlin, Beck Malenstyn | 5–4 | 48% → 82% |
| P3 18:16 | ANA | Mikael GranlundPP from Chris Kreider, Leo Carlsson | 5–5 | 8% → 50% |
| OT 1:29 | ANA | Troy Terry unassisted | 5–6 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Benson L | 12:07 | 1 | 1 | +1.02 | +0.18 | +0.64 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Josh Doan R | 15:40 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.02 | +0.74 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Owen Power D | 21:01 | 1 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.24 | +0.89 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jack Quinn R | 14:40 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.11 | +0.72 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 21:31 | 1 | +0.22 | −0.20 | +0.60 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Metsa D | 12:13 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Ostlund C | 14:42 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 22:44 | +0.02 | +0.07 | −0.10 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 10:33 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.22 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Sam Carrick C | 12:20 | −0.12 | +0.20 | −0.32 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 15:33 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Jason Zucker L | 14:21 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 16:21 | −0.18 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 22:02 | −0.18 | −0.36 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Logan Stanley D | 14:01 | −0.24 | −0.09 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Norris C | 15:07 | −0.28 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 19:55 | 1 | −0.35 | +0.02 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 25:18 | 2 | −0.41 | −0.03 | −0.38 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon G | 61:17 | −2.18 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Terry R | 22:16 | 2 | +1.62 | +0.29 | +1.32 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jackson LaCombe D | 23:56 | 1 | 1 | +1.14 | +0.26 | +0.91 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mikael Granlund C | 18:43 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.24 | +0.64 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jacob Trouba D | 28:25 | +0.61 | +0.64 | −0.08 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Beckett Sennecke R | 15:00 | 1 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.14 | +0.48 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Chris Kreider L | 17:40 | 1 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.26 | +0.26 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mason McTavish C | 12:28 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.10 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 21:20 | +0.01 | +0.20 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 16:23 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 25:03 | −0.07 | +0.13 | −0.23 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Washe C | 11:14 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Cutter Gauthier L | 16:22 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jansen Harkins C | 8:36 | −0.24 | +0.09 | −0.32 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leo Carlsson C | 17:31 | 2 | −0.27 | +0.03 | −0.40 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.06 | |
| Jeffrey Viel L | 12:01 | −0.28 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 17:54 | −0.40 | −0.17 | −0.39 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Ian Moore D | 9:50 | −0.40 | −0.32 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Olen Zellweger D | 12:45 | 1 | −0.42 | −0.33 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ville Husso G | 60:43 | −2.06 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.