PIT beat WPG 5–4 in a shootout. PIT also won the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 2.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Erik Karlsson scored at 12:45 of the third, moving PIT’s win probability from 17% to 51%. Connor Hellebuyck allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:06 |  PIT | Egor Chinakhov from Evgeni Malkin, Parker Wotherspoon | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 2:02 | PIT | Rickard Rakell from Bryan Rust, Samuel Girard | 0–2 | 69% → 82% |
| P1 3:50 |  WPG | Morgan Barron from Brad Lambert | 1–2 | 18% → 31% |
| P2 6:10 | WPG | Cole KoepkeSH from Adam Lowry, Dylan DeMelo | 2–2 | 27% → 46% |
| P2 15:22 | PIT | Erik Karlsson from Parker Wotherspoon, Egor Chinakhov | 2–3 | 53% → 75% |
| P3 4:04 | WPG | Neal Pionk from Jonathan Toews, Gustav Nyquist | 3–3 | 21% → 48% |
| P3 8:36 | WPG | Brad Lambert unassisted | 4–3 | 48% → 79% |
| P3 12:45 | PIT | Erik Karlsson from Bryan Rust, Sidney Crosby | 4–4 | 17% → 51% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neal Pionk D | 22:30 | 1 | +1.13 | +0.23 | +0.90 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Koepke L | 10:08 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.02 | +0.78 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Morgan Barron C | 15:25 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.05 | +0.75 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | |
| Brad Lambert C | 13:45 | 1 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.00 | +0.62 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Dylan Samberg D | 25:23 | +0.33 | +0.34 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 18:16 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.32 | −0.12 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.00 | |
| Haydn Fleury D | 14:51 | +0.07 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Iafallo L | 19:18 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Vilardi C | 17:46 | +0.00 | +0.09 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Dylan DeMelo D | 11:23 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Isak Rosen R | 10:53 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Cole Perfetti C | 17:15 | −0.17 | +0.14 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Elias Salomonsson D | 22:45 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Scheifele C | 24:28 | −0.35 | −0.40 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Gustav Nyquist R | 8:44 | 1 | −0.41 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.38 | |
| Jonathan Toews C | 8:03 | 1 | −0.49 | −0.03 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 | |
| Josh Morrissey D | 29:38 | −0.68 | −0.44 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Connor L | 23:49 | −0.89 | −0.39 | −0.45 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 65:00 | −1.39 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Karlsson D | 25:31 | 2 | +1.63 | +0.26 | +1.39 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rickard Rakell R | 17:15 | 1 | +0.92 | −0.02 | +0.61 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.33 | |
| Sidney Crosby C | 20:47 | 1 | +0.90 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.05 | +0.79 | |
| Parker Wotherspoon D | 23:26 | 2 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Egor Chinakhov R | 17:39 | 1 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.08 | +0.43 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 |
| Connor Clifton D | 16:30 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Shea D | 8:45 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 15:32 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Evgeni Malkin C | 19:44 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.10 | −0.20 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Elmer Soderblom L | 13:31 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 12:22 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 22:47 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noel Acciari C | 16:18 | −0.13 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.00 | ||
| Justin Brazeau R | 10:28 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Tommy Novak C | 16:45 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.25 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.05 | −0.00 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 26:13 | −0.16 | −0.11 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Kindel C | 13:58 | −0.42 | +0.27 | −0.65 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 18:49 | 2 | −0.53 | −0.05 | −0.45 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Arturs Silovs G | 65:00 | −1.00 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.