CGY beat FLA 4–1. CGY also won the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Joel Farabee scored at 7:44 of the second, moving CGY’s win probability from 53% to 73%. Dustin Wolf saved 1.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 7:44 |  CGY | Joel Farabee from Blake Coleman | 0–1 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 10:10 | CGY | Victor Olofsson from Adam Klapka, Olli Maatta | 0–2 | 74% → 88% |
| P3 4:17 | FLA | A.J. Greer from Donovan Sebrango, Tomas Nosek | 1–2 | 6% → 21% |
| P3 16:59 | CGY | Morgan FrostPP from Yegor Sharangovich, Zayne Parekh | 1–3 | 98% → 100% |
| P3 17:30 | CGY | Matt CoronatoPP from Matvei Gridin, Blake Coleman | 1–4 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Sebrango D | 16:52 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.20 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Benning D | 18:12 | +0.09 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Nosek L | 14:21 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| A.J. Greer L | 13:23 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.08 | +0.46 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.39 | −0.01 | |
| Luke Kunin C | 13:36 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 12:19 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Cole Reinhardt L | 13:16 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Boqvist C | 14:38 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 17:13 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 13:55 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 15:13 | −0.12 | +0.09 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 24:32 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 15:40 | −0.19 | +0.04 | −0.17 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 19:22 | −0.20 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 21:54 | −0.22 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nolan Foote L | 9:42 | −0.29 | +0.05 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 16:15 | −0.38 | −0.07 | −0.22 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 17:01 | −0.41 | +0.02 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Daniil Tarasov G | 60:00 | +0.21 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Zary C | 13:20 | +0.36 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.39 | −0.01 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 17:56 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.07 | +0.12 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.04 | |
| Matt Coronato R | 18:49 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.11 | +0.27 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Blake Coleman L | 17:39 | 2 | +0.20 | +0.05 | −0.06 | +0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Klapka R | 10:32 | 1 | +0.12 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Whitecloud D | 20:36 | +0.10 | +0.11 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 16:39 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Joel Farabee L | 14:05 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.08 | +0.42 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Olli Maatta D | 16:59 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Bahl D | 20:12 | +0.03 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 12:57 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 15:26 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.18 | +0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Hanley D | 14:35 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zayne Parekh D | 20:06 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.06 | −0.21 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Matvei Gridin R | 19:09 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.12 | −0.23 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Hunter Brzustewicz D | 17:31 | −0.15 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 17:58 | −0.18 | +0.07 | −0.20 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Martin Pospisil C | 9:38 | −0.25 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dustin Wolf G | 59:53 | +1.08 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.