FLA beat EDM 4–0. FLA also won the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Cole Reinhardt scored at 11:12 of the first, moving FLA’s win probability from 47% to 64%. Sergei Bobrovsky saved 2.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:12 | FLA | Cole Reinhardt from Mike Benning | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 19:02 | FLA | A.J. Greer from Mike Benning, Evan Rodrigues | 2–0 | 65% → 80% |
| P2 14:21 | FLA | Anton LundellPP from Sam Bennett, Evan Rodrigues | 3–0 | 87% → 96% |
| P3 15:23 | FLA | Carter Verhaeghe from Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Bennett | 4–0 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Greer L | 16:03 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.00 | +0.37 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Benning D | 15:43 | 2 | +0.46 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.42 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Reinhardt L | 11:41 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.00 | +0.38 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anton Lundell C | 16:25 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.13 | +0.16 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 16:35 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.03 | +0.17 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 16:09 | +0.09 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 17:44 | 2 | +0.07 | +0.14 | −0.21 | +0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Seth Jones D | 24:34 | +0.05 | +0.13 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 22:31 | +0.04 | +0.13 | +0.00 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mackie Samoskevich R | 12:10 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Nosek L | 12:53 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 16:20 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 18:13 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 11:24 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 14:50 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.06 | −0.06 | +0.14 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Gustav Forsling D | 20:33 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 16:26 | 2 | −0.08 | +0.05 | −0.13 | +0.20 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Jesper Boqvist C | 15:46 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 60:00 | +2.18 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid C | 21:29 | +0.07 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 27:07 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 21:06 | −0.04 | +0.11 | −0.04 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Samanski C | 10:57 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Max Jones L | 11:24 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Murphy D | 19:41 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trent Frederic C | 9:03 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 19:16 | −0.10 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 12:30 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 15:33 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Roslovic C | 15:16 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 17:37 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Walman D | 16:10 | −0.19 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Dickinson C | 14:40 | −0.19 | −0.05 | −0.10 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 16:48 | −0.23 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Spencer Stastney D | 13:23 | −0.29 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 17:23 | −0.33 | +0.05 | −0.09 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Matt Savoie C | 18:05 | −0.42 | −0.11 | −0.28 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Ingram G | 60:00 | −1.37 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.