CAR beat PIT 6–5 in overtime. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 4.8 to 3.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Sean Walker scored at 4:31 of overtime, moving CAR’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Stuart Skinner allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:34 | CAR | Jordan MartinookSH from Jordan Staal, Jaccob Slavin | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 9:57 |  PIT | Sidney Crosby from Rickard Rakell, Erik Karlsson | 1–1 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 16:51 | CAR | Jackson Blake from Taylor Hall, Nikolaj Ehlers | 1–2 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 0:59 | PIT | Erik KarlssonPP from Rickard Rakell, Evgeni Malkin | 2–2 | 28% → 49% |
| P3 3:27 | CAR | Taylor Hall from Jackson Blake, Logan Stankoven | 2–3 | 52% → 79% |
| P3 7:16 | PIT | Bryan Rust unassisted | 3–3 | 19% → 48% |
| P3 12:59 | CAR | Logan StankovenPP from Nikolaj Ehlers, Jackson Blake | 3–4 | 53% → 86% |
| P3 14:46 | PIT | Erik Karlsson from Parker Wotherspoon, Sidney Crosby | 4–4 | 12% → 49% |
| P3 15:09 | PIT | Ben Kindel from Anthony Mantha, Ilya Solovyov | 5–4 | 49% → 87% |
| P3 17:09 | CAR | K'Andre Miller from Sean Walker, Nikolaj Ehlers | 5–5 | 9% → 51% |
| OT 4:31 | CAR | Sean Walker from Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis | 5–6 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Karlsson D | 24:02 | 2 | 1 | +1.66 | +0.11 | +1.61 | +0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ben Kindel C | 14:36 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.04 | +0.46 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Bryan Rust R | 18:33 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.02 | +0.46 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Sidney Crosby C | 18:33 | 1 | 1 | +0.44 | −0.09 | +0.45 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| Evgeni Malkin C | 21:43 | 1 | +0.13 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.03 | +0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Clifton D | 14:34 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Solovyov D | 12:39 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rickard Rakell R | 20:46 | 2 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Parker Wotherspoon D | 18:54 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Brazeau R | 10:57 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elmer Soderblom L | 9:59 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tommy Novak C | 17:44 | −0.25 | −0.09 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 17:24 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.33 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Shea D | 21:59 | −0.37 | −0.39 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 25:28 | −0.46 | −0.30 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Egor Chinakhov R | 16:49 | −0.54 | −0.13 | −0.39 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 12:53 | −0.68 | −0.12 | −0.55 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Noel Acciari C | 13:18 | −0.87 | −0.04 | −0.81 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 64:31 | −1.29 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K'Andre Miller D | 25:19 | 1 | +1.12 | +0.45 | +0.90 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Taylor Hall L | 15:38 | 1 | 1 | +1.11 | +0.23 | +0.63 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Sean Walker D | 22:17 | 1 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.33 | +0.58 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jackson Blake R | 18:06 | 1 | 2 | +0.74 | +0.20 | +0.54 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jordan Martinook L | 16:38 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.12 | +0.44 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Logan Stankoven C | 15:19 | 1 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.20 | +0.23 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 17:50 | 3 | +0.07 | +0.08 | −0.05 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jalen Chatfield D | 20:43 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 6:51 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 18:00 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.16 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.04 | |
| Eric Robinson L | 7:55 | −0.06 | +0.11 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Reilly D | 13:34 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 23:52 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Nikishin D | 16:20 | −0.31 | −0.14 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 8:39 | −0.41 | −0.03 | −0.18 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 18:02 | −0.42 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 20:56 | 1 | −0.44 | −0.03 | −0.57 | +0.03 | −0.04 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Seth Jarvis R | 20:03 | 1 | −0.69 | −0.10 | −0.58 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 64:31 | −0.29 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.