MIN beat CHI 4–3 in overtime. MIN also won the expected-goals battle 3.8 to 2.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Mats Zuccarello scored at 3:09 of overtime, moving MIN’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:17 | MIN | Ryan Hartman from Kirill Kaprizov, Brock Faber | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 7:58 | MIN | Marcus Johansson from Michael McCarron, Jonas Brodin | 2–0 | 63% → 76% |
| P1 10:47 | CHI | Louis Crevier from Frank Nazar, Wyatt Kaiser | 2–1 | 23% → 36% |
| P1 18:30 | MIN | Vladimir TarasenkoPP from Marcus Johansson, Brock Faber | 3–1 | 66% → 80% |
| P2 14:35 | CHI | Ryan Greene from Connor Bedard, Louis Crevier | 3–2 | 14% → 30% |
| P3 18:20 | CHI | Frank Nazar from Connor Bedard, Artyom Levshunov | 3–3 | 6% → 50% |
| OT 3:09 | MIN | Mats Zuccarello from Marcus Johansson, Brock Faber | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 15:36 | 1 | +1.03 | +0.31 | +0.70 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marcus Johansson L | 15:56 | 1 | 2 | +0.90 | +0.11 | +0.79 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mats Zuccarello C | 17:12 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.14 | +0.60 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Hartman R | 18:39 | 1 | +0.50 | −0.04 | +0.51 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Quinn Hughes D | 27:27 | +0.31 | +0.44 | −0.16 | +0.08 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 15:50 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 11:39 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 14:19 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Jake Middleton D | 15:24 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 20:34 | +0.00 | +0.32 | −0.35 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 20:19 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Yakov Trenin C | 12:20 | −0.09 | +0.04 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 21:01 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Faber D | 21:48 | 3 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robby Fabbri C | 8:10 | −0.42 | +0.01 | −0.41 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Foligno L | 12:31 | −0.46 | −0.01 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 21:54 | 1 | −0.63 | +0.08 | −0.96 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Danila Yurov R | 14:58 | −0.74 | −0.01 | −0.53 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jesper Wallstedt G | 3:27 | +0.13 |
| Filip Gustavsson G | 59:32 | −0.62 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Crevier D | 18:40 | 1 | 1 | +0.82 | −0.02 | +0.86 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Frank Nazar C | 20:48 | 1 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.10 | +0.71 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Ryan Greene C | 21:25 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.43 | +0.61 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 18:09 | +0.12 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Wyatt Kaiser D | 22:59 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Rinzel D | 16:52 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ethan Del Mastro D | 11:51 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Lafferty C | 7:02 | −0.11 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 16:52 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Lardis L | 10:24 | −0.14 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Vlasic D | 22:13 | −0.17 | −0.16 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Landon Slaggert L | 8:52 | −0.18 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Donato C | 13:50 | −0.19 | +0.20 | −0.34 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 11:05 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 16:12 | −0.40 | +0.01 | −0.42 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artyom Levshunov D | 26:29 | 1 | −0.41 | −0.33 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Bedard C | 23:05 | 2 | −0.43 | −0.01 | −0.44 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 20:50 | −0.52 | −0.34 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Knight G | 63:09 | +0.47 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.