NSH beat WPG 4–3 in a shootout. NSH lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 4.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jonathan Toews scored on the power play at 18:59 of the third, moving WPG’s win probability from 6% to 50%. Juuse Saros saved 2.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–WPG | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:02 |  NSH | Erik HaulaPP from Roman Josi, Luke Evangelista | 1–0 | 48% → 64% |
| P1 19:20 | WPG | Josh Morrissey from Gabriel Vilardi, Kyle Connor | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 5:09 | WPG | Gabriel VilardiPP from Cole Perfetti, Kyle Connor | 1–2 | 54% → 73% |
| P2 10:48 | NSH | Filip Forsberg from Jonathan Marchessault, Ryan Ufko | 2–2 | 26% → 47% |
| P3 14:01 | NSH | Matthew Wood from Jonathan Marchessault, Filip Forsberg | 3–2 | 49% → 85% |
| P3 18:59 | WPG | Jonathan ToewsPP from Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor | 3–3 | 6% → 50% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Haula L | 16:41 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.07 | +0.77 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | |
| Matthew Wood R | 16:28 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.06 | +0.76 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 21:59 | +0.40 | −0.12 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.66 | ||
| Filip Forsberg L | 17:34 | 1 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.15 | +0.37 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.39 | +0.00 | −0.11 |
| Reid Schaefer L | 9:38 | +0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Hague D | 24:42 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Evangelista R | 15:09 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Nick Perbix D | 20:18 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary L'Heureux L | 13:07 | −0.11 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Justin Barron D | 14:33 | −0.12 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ozzy Wiesblatt C | 10:05 | −0.15 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 27:36 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Jost C | 17:42 | −0.22 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan Ufko D | 11:39 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Fedor Svechkov C | 9:58 | −0.41 | −0.17 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 18:15 | −0.48 | −0.34 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 18:12 | 2 | −0.50 | −0.03 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Brady Skjei D | 25:14 | −0.59 | −0.57 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 65:00 | +2.67 |
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Morrissey D | 29:05 | 1 | +1.09 | +0.43 | +0.67 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Toews C | 13:58 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.10 | +0.66 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | |
| Gabriel Vilardi C | 21:56 | 1 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.33 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.39 | −0.01 | −0.32 |
| Jacob Bryson D | 9:24 | +0.33 | +0.15 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Isak Rosen R | 13:18 | +0.10 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mark Scheifele C | 24:41 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.52 | −0.40 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.29 | |
| Elias Salomonsson D | 21:48 | +0.01 | +0.23 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Haydn Fleury D | 10:06 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Barron C | 14:00 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Dylan Samberg D | 25:22 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Koepke L | 7:03 | −0.09 | +0.08 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 17:10 | −0.10 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Dylan DeMelo D | 22:25 | −0.11 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Lambert C | 9:15 | −0.13 | +0.11 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Alex Iafallo L | 15:37 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Gustav Nyquist R | 13:33 | −0.31 | +0.11 | −0.42 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Kyle Connor L | 25:17 | 3 | −0.48 | +0.53 | −0.66 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.33 | |
| Cole Perfetti C | 21:05 | 1 | −0.64 | +0.03 | −0.67 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 63:09 | −1.46 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.