NJD beat BOS 4–3 in overtime. NJD also won the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Paul Cotter scored at 4:53 of overtime, moving NJD’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BOS–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:02 | BOS | David Pastrnak from Henri Jokiharju, Marat Khusnutdinov | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 14:29 | BOS | Pavel Zacha from Viktor Arvidsson, Charlie McAvoy | 2–0 | 64% → 78% |
| P2 0:32 | NJD | Connor Brown from Jack Hughes | 2–1 | 20% → 34% |
| P2 8:08 | NJD | Jesper Bratt from Connor Brown, Jack Hughes | 2–2 | 32% → 53% |
| P3 2:50 | NJD | Paul Cotter from Maxim Tsyplakov, Brenden Dillon | 2–3 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 4:32 | BOS | David Pastrnak unassisted | 3–3 | 21% → 48% |
| OT 4:53 | NJD | Paul Cotter from Jack Hughes, Dougie Hamilton | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Pastrnak R | 24:03 | 2 | +1.25 | +0.06 | +1.33 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Zacha C | 18:54 | 1 | +0.24 | −0.46 | +0.73 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 15:16 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mason Lohrei D | 22:07 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 20:38 | −0.07 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Fraser Minten C | 18:13 | −0.10 | +0.10 | −0.37 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Henri Jokiharju D | 19:14 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Kastelic C | 8:50 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Marat Khusnutdinov C | 19:56 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.30 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tanner Jeannot L | 10:39 | −0.13 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 15:24 | −0.19 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alex Steeves C | 11:34 | −0.21 | −0.08 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 20:07 | −0.22 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hampus Lindholm D | 22:00 | −0.25 | −0.22 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie McAvoy D | 20:55 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Kuraly C | 10:50 | −0.30 | +0.04 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jonathan Aspirot D | 16:15 | −0.31 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Geekie C | 16:23 | −0.32 | −0.08 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joonas Korpisalo G | 64:14 | −0.31 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Cotter C | 9:18 | 2 | +1.57 | −0.02 | +1.41 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Jesper Bratt L | 22:38 | 1 | +1.35 | +0.45 | +0.46 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Brown R | 19:50 | 1 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.08 | +0.38 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Simon Nemec D | 19:48 | +0.12 | +0.15 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 15:48 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dougie Hamilton D | 26:19 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.22 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Hughes C | 24:16 | 3 | +0.01 | +0.31 | −0.31 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Arseny Gritsyuk R | 11:17 | +0.01 | +0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Maxim Tsyplakov R | 7:39 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cody Glass C | 15:26 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 21:31 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Hughes D | 22:35 | −0.07 | +0.22 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 16:10 | −0.18 | +0.11 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dawson Mercer C | 19:07 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 7:42 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Lenni Hameenaho R | 9:16 | −0.23 | +0.08 | −0.29 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 17:56 | −0.48 | −0.05 | −0.44 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nico Hischier C | 22:03 | −0.53 | −0.04 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 64:53 | −0.75 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.