SEA beat FLA 6–2. SEA lost the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 2.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Ben Meyers scored at 5:28 of the first, moving SEA’s win probability from 53% to 69%. Daniil Tarasov allowed 3.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–SEA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:28 | SEA | Ben Meyers from Ryan Winterton, Frederick Gaudreau | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 11:52 | SEA | Berkly Catton from Kaapo Kakko, Jamie Oleksiak | 0–2 | 70% → 84% |
| P1 12:07 | FLA | Vinnie Hinostroza from Luke Kunin, Jesper Boqvist | 1–2 | 16% → 30% |
| P1 18:24 | SEA | Ryan Winterton from Ben Meyers, Brandon Montour | 1–3 | 71% → 85% |
| P2 3:20 | SEA | Kaapo Kakko from Vince Dunn, Berkly Catton | 1–4 | 86% → 94% |
| P3 10:07 | SEA | Bobby McMannPP from Kaapo Kakko, Eeli Tolvanen | 1–5 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 14:37 | SEA | Jamie Oleksiak from Bobby McMann, Jordan Eberle | 1–6 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 19:58 | FLA | Eetu Luostarinen from Gustav Forsling, Mackie Samoskevich | 2–6 | 0% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 9:35 | 1 | +0.26 | −0.04 | +0.32 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 16:00 | 1 | +0.22 | −0.02 | +0.27 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Gustav Forsling D | 22:11 | 1 | +0.16 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anton Lundell C | 19:04 | +0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 17:29 | +0.08 | +0.02 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Boqvist C | 11:41 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 18:32 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Donovan Sebrango D | 15:32 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 10:43 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Mackie Samoskevich R | 18:21 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 18:07 | −0.03 | +0.06 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Reinhardt L | 11:34 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Nosek L | 13:21 | −0.16 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mike Benning D | 17:24 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 22:46 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 18:54 | −0.19 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| A.J. Greer L | 14:38 | −0.21 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 17:08 | −0.29 | +0.06 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Daniil Tarasov G | 59:54 | −3.18 |
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Winterton C | 13:37 | 1 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.08 | +0.36 | +0.18 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Ben Meyers C | 15:46 | 1 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.07 | +0.38 | +0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 15:45 | 1 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.16 | +0.38 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Kaapo Kakko R | 11:47 | 1 | 2 | +0.54 | +0.02 | +0.13 | +0.39 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Bobby McMann C | 19:36 | 1 | 1 | +0.50 | −0.02 | +0.36 | +0.14 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Berkly Catton C | 7:51 | 1 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.02 | +0.37 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Ryker Evans D | 17:29 | +0.40 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 18:32 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 17:22 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.11 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Adam Larsson D | 21:03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Wright C | 12:54 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 14:20 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.12 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matty Beniers C | 16:37 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jared McCann L | 13:04 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Montour D | 23:00 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 17:47 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.04 | −0.07 | +0.05 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Chandler Stephenson C | 16:13 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Ryan Lindgren D | 19:17 | −0.32 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Daccord G | 60:00 | +0.35 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.