TOR beat MIN 4–2. TOR lost the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 3.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Morgan Rielly scored at 1:07 of the second, moving TOR’s win probability from 47% to 66%. Anthony Stolarz saved 1.9 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 1:07 | TOR | Morgan Rielly from Matias Maccelli, John Tavares | 1–0 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 2:19 | TOR | Bo Groulx from Troy Stecher, Nicholas Robertson | 2–0 | 66% → 81% |
| P2 8:18 | TOR | Bo Groulx unassisted | 3–0 | 84% → 95% |
| P3 4:51 |  MIN | Vladimir Tarasenko from Mats Zuccarello, Ryan Hartman | 3–1 | 2% → 8% |
| P3 5:14 | MIN | Vladimir Tarasenko from Ryan Hartman, Mats Zuccarello | 3–2 | 8% → 24% |
| P3 19:23 | TOR | Matthew KniesEN unassisted | 4–2 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Groulx C | 17:03 | 2 | +1.44 | −0.20 | +1.63 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Morgan Rielly D | 17:38 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.10 | +0.69 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Benoit D | 14:46 | +0.10 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Knies L | 20:47 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.02 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Max Domi C | 15:26 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 17:13 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.07 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Easton Cowan R | 16:39 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Quillan C | 8:21 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Steven Lorentz C | 10:54 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| William Nylander R | 17:42 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brandon Carlo D | 25:07 | −0.24 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philippe Myers D | 17:28 | −0.25 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dakota Joshua C | 11:51 | −0.32 | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 14:19 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.08 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Tavares C | 19:49 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.14 | −0.33 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| Nicholas Robertson L | 13:41 | 1 | −0.47 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 10:22 | −0.51 | −0.05 | −0.29 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 26:49 | −0.51 | −0.30 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Stolarz G | 58:05 | +1.85 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 16:55 | 2 | +1.76 | +0.17 | +1.56 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jared Spurgeon D | 18:02 | +0.11 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 31:17 | +0.09 | +0.10 | −0.22 | +0.06 | −0.05 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 10:14 | +0.09 | +0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 19:18 | +0.08 | +0.16 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Foligno L | 11:10 | +0.06 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 12:11 | +0.00 | +0.11 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 22:41 | −0.02 | +0.13 | −0.23 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danila Yurov R | 12:48 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 9:20 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Brock Faber D | 23:30 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 7:49 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 21:35 | 2 | −0.14 | +0.29 | −0.49 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Marcus Johansson L | 13:13 | −0.15 | −0.06 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 16:52 | 2 | −0.16 | +0.26 | −0.41 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 18:47 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.36 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 19:28 | −0.52 | −0.01 | −0.53 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 12:24 | −0.58 | +0.04 | −0.44 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jesper Wallstedt G | 58:26 | −0.86 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.