OTT beat SJS 7–4. OTT also won the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Drake Batherson scored at 13:08 of the third, moving OTT’s win probability from 51% to 86%. Laurent Brossoit allowed 3.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:05 |  SJS | Mario Ferraro from Shakir Mukhamadullin | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 7:33 | OTT | Drake BathersonPP unassisted | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 14:43 | SJS | Tyler Toffoli from Mario Ferraro, Shakir Mukhamadullin | 2–1 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 4:31 | OTT | Warren Foegele from Michael Amadio | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 10:46 | SJS | Collin Graf from Macklin Celebrini, Sam Dickinson | 3–2 | 47% → 69% |
| P2 13:40 | OTT | Fabian ZetterlundPP from Jordan Spence | 3–3 | 31% → 53% |
| P2 14:45 | OTT | Tyler Kleven from Fabian Zetterlund, Warren Foegele | 3–4 | 53% → 75% |
| P3 3:28 | SJS | Michael Misa from Tyler Toffoli, Vincent Desharnais | 4–4 | 21% → 48% |
| P3 13:08 | OTT | Drake Batherson from Artem Zub, Claude Giroux | 4–5 | 51% → 86% |
| P3 14:50 | OTT | Dylan Cozens from Brady Tkachuk | 4–6 | 88% → 99% |
| P3 17:43 | OTT | Brady TkachukEN from Michael Amadio, Artem Zub | 4–7 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Misa C | 11:58 | 1 | +0.96 | −0.01 | +0.85 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.06 | |
| Tyler Toffoli C | 14:22 | 1 | 1 | +0.84 | −0.08 | +0.71 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Mario Ferraro D | 20:33 | 1 | 1 | +0.81 | −0.06 | +0.85 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Collin Graf R | 17:10 | 1 | +0.49 | −0.04 | +0.52 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Dickinson D | 20:26 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.18 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Barclay Goodrow C | 13:01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Desharnais D | 20:35 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Shakir Mukhamadullin D | 17:02 | 2 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Gaudette R | 11:33 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Philipp Kurashev C | 13:00 | −0.23 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Will Smith C | 18:12 | −0.23 | −0.15 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack Ostapchuk C | 13:27 | −0.31 | −0.03 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavol Regenda L | 14:22 | −0.41 | −0.24 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Eklund L | 17:07 | −0.47 | −0.09 | −0.39 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Macklin Celebrini C | 20:40 | 1 | −0.47 | −0.17 | −0.25 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 16:36 | −0.48 | −0.18 | −0.29 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Klingberg D | 17:07 | −0.52 | −0.30 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 18:47 | −0.56 | −0.36 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Laurent Brossoit G | 59:09 | −3.33 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Batherson R | 14:47 | 2 | +1.74 | −0.05 | +1.59 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Kleven D | 19:31 | 1 | +0.99 | +0.18 | +0.82 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 12:44 | 1 | 1 | +0.96 | −0.04 | +0.80 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Dylan Cozens C | 16:19 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.10 | +0.82 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Warren Foegele L | 13:17 | 1 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.05 | +0.72 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Thomas Chabot D | 28:29 | +0.27 | +0.26 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Claude Giroux R | 10:58 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Michael Amadio R | 17:54 | 2 | +0.18 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ridly Greig C | 13:47 | +0.09 | +0.23 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 16:26 | 1 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.08 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Jordan Spence D | 17:35 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikolas Matinpalo D | 15:47 | −0.05 | +0.07 | −0.16 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 19:54 | 2 | −0.08 | +0.13 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dennis Gilbert D | 13:53 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 15:08 | −0.12 | +0.07 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 13:42 | −0.17 | +0.05 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 19:15 | −0.18 | +0.12 | −0.29 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 16:34 | −0.51 | −0.04 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 60:00 | −1.43 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.