PIT beat UTA 4–3. PIT lost the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Noel Acciari scored at 8:03 of the third, moving PIT’s win probability from 48% to 78%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–UTA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:06 |  UTA | Dylan Guenther unassisted | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 6:37 | UTA | Dylan GuentherPP unassisted | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P2 14:48 |  PIT | Anthony ManthaPP from Erik Karlsson, Egor Chinakhov | 1–2 | 13% → 26% |
| P2 17:26 | PIT | Tommy Novak from Parker Wotherspoon, Anthony Mantha | 2–2 | 24% → 47% |
| P3 1:24 | PIT | Bryan RustPP from Rickard Rakell, Egor Chinakhov | 3–2 | 49% → 73% |
| P3 4:17 | UTA | Ian Cole from Alexander Kerfoot, Kevin Stenlund | 3–3 | 25% → 52% |
| P3 8:03 | PIT | Noel Acciari from Parker Wotherspoon, Erik Karlsson | 4–3 | 48% → 78% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Rust R | 19:17 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.09 | +0.62 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Noel Acciari C | 17:24 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.14 | +0.72 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tommy Novak C | 13:31 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.11 | +0.42 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Parker Wotherspoon D | 21:35 | 2 | +0.44 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Mantha R | 17:09 | 1 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.19 | +0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Connor Clifton D | 12:50 | +0.10 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 26:50 | 2 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ville Koivunen R | 12:28 | −0.03 | +0.21 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Shea D | 18:37 | −0.03 | −0.24 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Avery Hayes R | 10:44 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Solovyov D | 11:06 | −0.07 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Lizotte C | 15:48 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Elmer Soderblom L | 13:12 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Kindel C | 13:30 | −0.16 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 18:57 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Egor Chinakhov R | 16:44 | 2 | −0.23 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kris Letang D | 20:37 | −0.28 | −0.15 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 14:58 | −0.34 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 60:00 | +0.12 |
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Guenther R | 20:18 | 2 | +1.13 | +0.04 | +1.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Ian Cole D | 16:44 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.20 | +0.80 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 27:07 | +0.37 | +0.29 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 10:28 | +0.29 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Sean Durzi D | 15:53 | +0.05 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 12:41 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.15 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 7:53 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 21:15 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Cooley C | 15:07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 20:13 | −0.07 | +0.20 | −0.29 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 15:09 | −0.15 | +0.16 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| John Marino D | 14:00 | −0.23 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 10:21 | −0.24 | +0.04 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 18:36 | −0.26 | −0.21 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 16:42 | −0.29 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 10:10 | 1 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 24:25 | −0.36 | +0.18 | −0.60 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 14:39 | −0.49 | −0.17 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 57:30 | −0.94 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.