CBJ beat PHI 2–1 in a shootout. Expected goals were close to even (CBJ 2.5, PHI 2.4), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Alex Bump scored at 10:24 of the first, moving PHI’s win probability from 36% to 53%. Jet Greaves saved 2.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–PHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:21 | CBJ | Kirill Marchenko from Adam Fantilli, Damon Severson | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 10:24 |  PHI | Alex Bump from Emil Andrae, Christian Dvorak | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Marchenko R | 22:06 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.30 | +0.23 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +1.01 | |
| Conor Garland R | 12:10 | +0.09 | +0.19 | −0.10 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Egor Zamula D | 7:20 | +0.08 | +0.12 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 16:39 | +0.03 | +0.20 | −0.11 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Denton Mateychuk D | 16:08 | +0.03 | +0.11 | −0.01 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 26:37 | −0.01 | +0.16 | −0.05 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Boone Jenner C | 11:56 | −0.01 | +0.07 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 23:02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Olivier R | 14:25 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 8:28 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mason Marchment L | 17:31 | −0.06 | +0.07 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Zach Werenski D | 27:13 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Isac Lundeström C | 13:07 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 14:06 | −0.16 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 21:20 | −0.36 | −0.25 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Kent Johnson C | 12:27 | −0.42 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 | ||
| Adam Fantilli C | 19:16 | 1 | −0.94 | −0.33 | −0.21 | +0.17 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.38 | |
| Damon Severson D | 23:18 | 1 | −1.08 | −0.83 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jet Greaves G | 64:51 | +2.20 |
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Barkey C | 12:01 | +0.45 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.58 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Alex Bump L | 15:34 | 1 | +0.34 | −0.04 | +0.42 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Emil Andrae D | 11:26 | 1 | +0.14 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.22 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Seeler D | 12:42 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 19:47 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.04 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.08 | −0.00 | |
| Jamie Drysdale D | 25:16 | −0.01 | +0.12 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Couturier C | 15:16 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nikita Grebenkin R | 11:55 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Owen Tippett R | 21:23 | −0.06 | +0.14 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Cam York D | 20:50 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Grundstrom R | 10:51 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 12:29 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Noah Cates L | 13:09 | −0.23 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 24:35 | −0.25 | +0.13 | −0.13 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matvei Michkov R | 17:18 | −0.28 | +0.13 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 24:08 | −0.29 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Zegras C | 22:15 | −0.48 | +0.29 | −0.19 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.38 | ||
| Travis Konecny R | 22:05 | −0.66 | +0.00 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar G | 65:00 | +1.15 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.