BUF beat TOR 3–2 in a shootout. BUF also won the expected-goals battle 4.2 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jack Quinn scored on the power play at 11:21 of the second, moving BUF’s win probability from 32% to 53%. Joseph Woll saved 1.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:01 |  BUF | Owen Power from Zach Benson, Sam Carrick | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 6:09 | TOR | Dakota Joshua from Nicholas Robertson | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P2 0:53 | TOR | Max Domi from William Nylander, Matthew Knies | 2–1 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 11:21 | BUF | Jack QuinnPP from Noah Ostlund, Ryan McLeod | 2–2 | 32% → 53% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Domi C | 16:47 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.15 | +0.80 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Dakota Joshua C | 11:58 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.17 | +0.72 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Jacob Quillan C | 10:10 | +0.01 | +0.12 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 19:33 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philippe Myers D | 16:53 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 10:38 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 19:50 | −0.11 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.08 | −0.00 | ||
| Brandon Carlo D | 19:18 | −0.12 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Benoit D | 17:05 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Pezzetta L | 6:29 | −0.25 | +0.05 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Matthew Knies L | 20:09 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Nicholas Robertson L | 14:35 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Jake McCabe D | 26:19 | −0.43 | −0.45 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 21:59 | −0.55 | −0.30 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 19:25 | −0.56 | −0.32 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Bo Groulx C | 19:08 | −0.65 | −0.25 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | ||
| Easton Cowan R | 15:07 | −0.76 | −0.15 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.38 | ||
| William Nylander R | 21:18 | 1 | −0.79 | −0.16 | −0.30 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joseph Woll G | 65:00 | +1.01 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Quinn R | 13:42 | 1 | +1.41 | −0.19 | +0.79 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.79 | |
| Owen Power D | 23:50 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.12 | +0.83 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Metsa D | 15:32 | +0.45 | +0.46 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 11:27 | +0.40 | +0.22 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 25:35 | +0.25 | +0.33 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Doan R | 19:02 | +0.22 | +0.21 | −0.37 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.39 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 20:52 | +0.11 | +0.32 | −0.56 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.33 | ||
| Zach Benson L | 14:43 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.19 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Logan Stanley D | 15:49 | +0.02 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 11:02 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 16:24 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Sam Carrick C | 10:34 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.15 | −0.17 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Ryan McLeod C | 17:56 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.10 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Peyton Krebs C | 11:13 | −0.17 | +0.20 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Josh Norris C | 19:13 | −0.24 | +0.22 | −0.43 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Noah Ostlund C | 15:46 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 26:12 | −0.32 | +0.20 | −0.31 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 21:19 | −0.57 | +0.17 | −0.56 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.05 | −0.32 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon G | 65:00 | +0.81 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.