VAN beat NSH 4–3 in a shootout. VAN also won the expected-goals battle 4.0 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Filip Hronek scored on the power play at 18:59 of the third, moving VAN’s win probability from 6% to 50%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:40 | VAN | Brock Boeser from Marco Rossi, Filip Hronek | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 18:28 | NSH | Tyson Jost from Justin Barron, Fedor Svechkov | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 5:20 | NSH | Tyson Jost from Roman Josi, Ryan Ufko | 2–1 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 14:06 | NSH | Matthew Wood unassisted | 3–1 | 70% → 86% |
| P3 15:55 | VAN | Marco Rossi from Liam Ohgren | 3–2 | 1% → 12% |
| P3 18:59 | VAN | Filip HronekPP from Brock Boeser, Marco Rossi | 3–3 | 6% → 50% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Jost C | 13:00 | 2 | +1.41 | +0.07 | +1.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Matthew Wood R | 10:48 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.00 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Fedor Svechkov C | 14:24 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Ozzy Wiesblatt C | 12:21 | +0.08 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Zachary L'Heureux L | 8:38 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan Ufko D | 13:55 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Hague D | 22:47 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Perbix D | 20:01 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Barron D | 14:33 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Reid Schaefer L | 7:07 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 17:00 | −0.23 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 19:00 | −0.26 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 23:48 | −0.27 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Evangelista R | 21:12 | −0.28 | −0.23 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 28:35 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.41 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Forsberg L | 21:51 | −0.59 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.38 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 20:46 | −0.74 | −0.31 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | −0.49 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 23:14 | −1.13 | −0.24 | −0.38 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.32 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 65:00 | +0.36 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filip Hronek D | 29:03 | 1 | 1 | +1.39 | +0.37 | +0.82 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jake DeBrusk L | 11:25 | +0.80 | +0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.79 | ||
| Marco Rossi C | 14:08 | 1 | 2 | +0.72 | +0.13 | +0.76 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.05 | −0.00 |
| Brock Boeser R | 18:26 | 1 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.11 | +0.28 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Zeev Buium D | 18:44 | +0.21 | +0.25 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 24:54 | +0.08 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Pettersson C | 19:36 | +0.05 | +0.39 | −0.27 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | −0.16 | ||
| Elias Pettersson D | 17:14 | −0.01 | +0.13 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Willander D | 23:04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 19:16 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Victor Mancini D | 12:20 | −0.10 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 17:44 | −0.12 | +0.12 | −0.24 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Linus Karlsson C | 14:40 | −0.18 | +0.04 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Aatu Räty C | 10:15 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Curtis Douglas C | 9:53 | −0.27 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Max Sasson C | 15:58 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Drew O'Connor L | 18:40 | −0.41 | +0.25 | −0.62 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Liam Ohgren L | 16:47 | 1 | −0.74 | +0.10 | −0.49 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Nikita Tolopilo G | 63:53 | +0.43 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.