NYR beat WPG 6–3. NYR lost the expected-goals battle 1.5 to 2.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Gabe Perreault scored at 6:57 of the third, moving NYR’s win probability from 48% to 77%. Connor Hellebuyck allowed 4.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–WPG | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:08 |  NYR | Adam FoxPP from Mika Zibanejad | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P2 2:21 | WPG | Isak Rosen from Jacob Bryson, Gustav Nyquist | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 7:36 | NYR | Alexis Lafrenière from Will Borgen, Gabe Perreault | 2–1 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 17:49 | WPG | Kyle Connor from Mark Scheifele, Elias Salomonsson | 2–2 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 1:15 | NYR | Tye Kartye from Matthew Robertson, Braden Schneider | 3–2 | 48% → 73% |
| P3 4:19 | WPG | Gabriel Vilardi from Adam Lowry, Cole Perfetti | 3–3 | 25% → 52% |
| P3 6:57 | NYR | Gabe Perreault from Braden Schneider, Alexis Lafrenière | 4–3 | 48% → 77% |
| P3 11:08 | NYR | Adam Edstrom from Vincent Trocheck, Conor Sheary | 5–3 | 81% → 96% |
| P3 19:09 | NYR | Noah LabaEN from Tye Kartye, Vincent Trocheck | 6–3 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tye Kartye L | 14:27 | 1 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.01 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 18:19 | 1 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.04 | +0.81 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Adam Fox D | 21:11 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.12 | +0.84 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gabe Perreault R | 19:09 | 1 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.11 | +0.81 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Adam Edstrom C | 13:45 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.15 | +0.85 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jaroslav Chmelar R | 8:45 | +0.14 | +0.01 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 22:25 | 2 | +0.11 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jonny Brodzinski C | 10:06 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mika Zibanejad C | 18:23 | 1 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Laba C | 14:24 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Juuso Parssinen C | 9:30 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Will Borgen D | 18:15 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Conor Sheary L | 15:08 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Urho Vaakanainen D | 16:13 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Robertson D | 21:22 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.09 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 19:32 | −0.29 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Cuylle L | 17:34 | −0.37 | −0.27 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 19:32 | 2 | −0.46 | −0.33 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 60:00 | −0.72 |
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isak Rosen R | 11:15 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.02 | +0.73 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gabriel Vilardi C | 17:19 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.15 | +0.74 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Kyle Connor L | 23:25 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.09 | +0.60 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Scheifele C | 24:21 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.13 | −0.05 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Samberg D | 21:57 | +0.11 | +0.23 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan DeMelo D | 23:18 | +0.08 | +0.12 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Koepke L | 11:02 | +0.07 | +0.04 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Morrissey D | 25:35 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Haydn Fleury D | 14:16 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Nyquist R | 9:18 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Perfetti C | 15:31 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.12 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Barron C | 13:31 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 13:57 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.05 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Brad Lambert C | 10:14 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Bryson D | 13:12 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Salomonsson D | 20:11 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.16 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Toews C | 13:19 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 | ||
| Alex Iafallo L | 17:36 | −0.24 | +0.07 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 58:34 | −3.98 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.