PHI beat MIN 3–2 in a shootout. PHI lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 2.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Owen Tippett scored short-handed at 7:58 of the third, moving PHI’s win probability from 18% to 47%. Dan Vladar saved 1.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PHI–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 18:35 | PHI | Emil Andrae from Trevor Zegras | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 8:39 |  MIN | Matt BoldyPP from Mats Zuccarello, Quinn Hughes | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 17:50 | MIN | Kirill Kaprizov from Brock Faber, Quinn Hughes | 1–2 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 7:58 | PHI | Owen TippettSH from Carl Grundstrom, Travis Sanheim | 2–2 | 18% → 47% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emil Andrae D | 13:22 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.01 | +0.60 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Owen Tippett R | 20:25 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.33 | +0.60 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Travis Konecny R | 25:15 | +0.15 | −0.45 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +1.01 | ||
| Nikita Grebenkin R | 12:50 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Denver Barkey C | 12:13 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Carl Grundstrom R | 13:17 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Sean Couturier C | 14:28 | −0.07 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Jamie Drysdale D | 24:23 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Bump L | 13:27 | −0.17 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nick Seeler D | 14:24 | −0.18 | −0.05 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 10:22 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Noah Cates L | 15:10 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 24:05 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Dvorak C | 19:27 | −0.27 | −0.27 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 21:26 | −0.29 | −0.18 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam York D | 23:02 | −0.33 | −0.25 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Zegras C | 21:06 | 1 | −0.62 | −0.29 | −0.09 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.11 | −0.38 | |
| Matvei Michkov R | 15:56 | −0.70 | +0.13 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.32 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar G | 64:33 | +1.26 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 24:52 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.19 | +0.78 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.38 | |
| Matt Boldy L | 20:43 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.22 | +0.73 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 | |
| Ryan Hartman R | 16:29 | +0.39 | +0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.06 | −0.00 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 27:57 | 2 | +0.26 | +0.33 | −0.10 | +0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brock Faber D | 27:14 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.27 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Foligno L | 10:55 | +0.10 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 20:02 | +0.10 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 13:52 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Danila Yurov R | 12:45 | +0.06 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 11:49 | +0.06 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 19:24 | +0.01 | +0.22 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 18:05 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 12:07 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 12:43 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Robby Fabbri C | 8:27 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 11:23 | −0.22 | −0.07 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 22:47 | −0.27 | +0.26 | −0.52 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 19:19 | 1 | −0.53 | +0.13 | −0.37 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jesper Wallstedt G | 64:52 | +0.18 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.