STL beat CAR 3–1. STL lost the expected-goals battle 1.6 to 3.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jimmy Snuggerud scored at 15:12 of the third, moving STL’s win probability from 49% to 87%. Jordan Binnington saved 3.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:38 |  CAR | Mark Jankowski unassisted | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 3:53 | STL | Jimmy Snuggerud from Dylan Holloway, Cam Fowler | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P3 15:12 | STL | Jimmy Snuggerud from Dylan Holloway, Robert Thomas | 2–1 | 49% → 87% |
| P3 19:09 | STL | Pavel BuchnevichEN from Jack Finley, Alexey Toropchenko | 3–1 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Snuggerud R | 20:03 | 2 | +1.41 | −0.14 | +1.59 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Nathan Walker L | 11:25 | +0.11 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyler Tucker D | 16:46 | +0.06 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Kyrou R | 12:07 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 19:58 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 10:59 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robert Thomas C | 18:41 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 17:23 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Neighbours L | 12:46 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Mailloux D | 21:41 | −0.17 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dalibor Dvorsky R | 12:24 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Philip Broberg D | 23:25 | −0.19 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 21:29 | −0.23 | −0.25 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 16:55 | −0.26 | −0.12 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Otto Stenberg C | 12:51 | −0.26 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Finley C | 11:33 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.04 | |
| Theo Lindstein D | 14:59 | −0.40 | −0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Holloway L | 20:55 | 2 | −0.50 | −0.20 | −0.32 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 59:40 | +2.99 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Jankowski L | 11:59 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.05 | +0.73 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| K'Andre Miller D | 23:07 | +0.38 | +0.39 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 19:38 | +0.22 | +0.25 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Nikishin D | 16:59 | +0.07 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Hall L | 16:10 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Logan Stankoven C | 16:30 | +0.06 | +0.11 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Jackson Blake R | 17:59 | +0.04 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 21:30 | +0.02 | +0.18 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 15:02 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 19:41 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 10:28 | −0.08 | +0.10 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 10:54 | −0.08 | +0.17 | −0.43 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Seth Jarvis R | 20:34 | −0.10 | +0.24 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 18:48 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Reilly D | 14:08 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 11:26 | −0.25 | −0.04 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 20:30 | −0.66 | +0.28 | −0.95 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 14:40 | −0.76 | +0.02 | −0.75 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Bussi G | 57:57 | −0.48 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.