CGY beat NJD 5–4. CGY lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 4.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Yegor Sharangovich scored at 16:48 of the second, moving CGY’s win probability from 71% to 88%. Jacob Markstrom allowed 2.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:04 | CGY | John Beecher from Matvei Gridin | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 14:07 | CGY | Kevin Bahl from Olli Maatta, Adam Klapka | 2–0 | 64% → 78% |
| P1 16:14 |  NJD | Maxim Tsyplakov from Nick Bjugstad | 2–1 | 21% → 35% |
| P2 0:54 | CGY | John BeecherSH unassisted | 3–1 | 65% → 80% |
| P2 1:36 | NJD | Simon NemecPP from Luke Hughes, Jacob Markstrom | 3–2 | 20% → 34% |
| P2 16:48 | CGY | Yegor Sharangovich from Ryan Strome, Victor Olofsson | 4–2 | 71% → 88% |
| P3 4:10 | CGY | Mikael Backlund from Joel Farabee, Brayden Pachal | 5–2 | 92% → 98% |
| P3 9:38 | NJD | Jack Hughes from Jesper Bratt, Dougie Hamilton | 5–3 | 1% → 5% |
| P3 19:56 | NJD | Luke HughesPP from Jesper Bratt, Jack Hughes | 5–4 | 0% → 4% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Beecher C | 15:15 | 2 | +1.40 | −0.01 | +1.44 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Kevin Bahl D | 27:33 | 1 | +0.89 | −0.01 | +0.89 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 16:37 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.02 | +0.71 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mikael Backlund C | 18:07 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.00 | +0.52 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Connor Zary C | 12:15 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yan Kuznetsov D | 17:09 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hunter Brzustewicz D | 15:23 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Pachal D | 16:05 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Olofsson R | 16:18 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Frost C | 11:41 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 15:02 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Matt Coronato R | 13:07 | −0.11 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Olli Maatta D | 27:19 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Farabee L | 16:25 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Klapka R | 11:58 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.05 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Hanley D | 16:41 | −0.28 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matvei Gridin R | 10:55 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.05 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Blake Coleman L | 17:20 | −0.62 | +0.06 | −0.67 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dustin Wolf G | 60:00 | −0.43 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Nemec D | 21:22 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.11 | +0.72 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Maxim Tsyplakov R | 11:13 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.01 | +0.78 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Hughes D | 25:03 | 1 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.15 | +0.57 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jack Hughes C | 20:57 | 1 | 1 | +0.21 | −0.07 | +0.30 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Brenden Dillon D | 16:31 | +0.05 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 13:39 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Cotter C | 11:07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 16:30 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dawson Mercer C | 15:49 | −0.02 | +0.22 | −0.23 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Cody Glass C | 14:19 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 11:15 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nico Hischier C | 20:59 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Arseny Gritsyuk R | 17:10 | −0.12 | +0.11 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lenni Hameenaho R | 12:28 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 17:20 | −0.16 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 21:32 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesper Bratt L | 20:11 | 2 | −0.24 | −0.10 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Timo Meier R | 16:40 | −0.24 | +0.22 | −0.64 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 55:55 | −2.26 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.