TOR beat ANA 6–4. TOR lost the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 4.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: William Nylander scored on the power play at 0:36 of the third, moving TOR’s win probability from 53% to 78%. Lukas Dostal allowed 2.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:19 | TOR | Matias Maccelli unassisted | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 12:19 |  ANA | Cutter Gauthier from Chris Kreider, Jackson LaCombe | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 14:26 | ANA | Ian Moore from Jansen Harkins | 2–1 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 2:55 | ANA | Pavel Mintyukov from Ryan Poehling, Jeffrey Viel | 3–1 | 66% → 81% |
| P2 10:47 | TOR | Auston MatthewsPP from Matthew Knies, William Nylander | 3–2 | 16% → 31% |
| P2 16:26 | TOR | John TavaresPP from Matias Maccelli, Matthew Knies | 3–3 | 30% → 53% |
| P3 0:36 | TOR | William NylanderPP from Matthew Knies, Matias Maccelli | 3–4 | 53% → 78% |
| P3 8:35 | TOR | Bo GroulxSH from Brandon Carlo | 3–5 | 81% → 95% |
| P3 18:12 | TOR | Matthew KniesEN from Jake McCabe, John Tavares | 3–6 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 19:34 | ANA | Alex Killorn from Jeffrey Viel, Jacob Trouba | 4–6 | 0% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Killorn L | 16:55 | 1 | +0.40 | −0.03 | +0.31 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ian Moore D | 10:18 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.05 | +0.30 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jackson LaCombe D | 25:05 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Cutter Gauthier L | 19:24 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.09 | +0.31 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 21:48 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.07 | +0.32 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jansen Harkins C | 6:45 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Drew Helleson D | 15:12 | +0.11 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeffrey Viel L | 8:32 | 2 | +0.11 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.24 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Poehling C | 14:52 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.07 | +0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Olen Zellweger D | 13:50 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Washe C | 10:55 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Leo Carlsson C | 19:51 | −0.09 | +0.16 | −0.23 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Mason McTavish C | 12:15 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 18:35 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.18 | −0.06 | +0.11 | +0.00 | −0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Granlund C | 20:17 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.25 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 10:09 | −0.21 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 23:43 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.04 | −0.26 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Beckett Sennecke R | 20:27 | −0.44 | +0.13 | −0.52 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 57:12 | −2.44 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Groulx C | 17:41 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.06 | +0.84 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Auston Matthews C | 13:18 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.12 | +0.38 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.39 | +0.03 | |
| Matias Maccelli L | 13:51 | 1 | 2 | +0.72 | −0.03 | +0.47 | +0.28 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| William Nylander R | 23:57 | 1 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.06 | +0.38 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Matthew Knies L | 22:32 | 1 | 3 | +0.44 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.38 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Simon Benoit D | 16:35 | +0.18 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 21:04 | 1 | 1 | +0.12 | −0.03 | +0.14 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 14:06 | +0.12 | −0.13 | −0.14 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.39 | +0.01 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 21:52 | −0.01 | +0.07 | −0.09 | +0.20 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicholas Robertson L | 11:15 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.12 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Pezzetta L | 3:43 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philippe Myers D | 12:33 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Carlo D | 20:27 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake McCabe D | 20:22 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Quillan C | 10:04 | −0.21 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 18:01 | −0.22 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Easton Cowan R | 15:00 | −0.40 | −0.04 | −0.15 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 12:12 | −0.62 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.39 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joseph Woll G | 59:27 | +0.00 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.