MTL beat OTT 3–2. MTL lost the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 3.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Ivan Demidov scored at 12:40 of the third, moving MTL’s win probability from 49% to 83%. Jacob Fowler saved 1.8 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:16 | MTL | Juraj SlafkovskýPP from Ivan Demidov, Nick Suzuki | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 16:42 |  OTT | Drake BathersonPP from Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 18:41 | OTT | Drake Batherson from Tim Stützle, Claude Giroux | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 17:29 | MTL | Alexandre Texier from Lane Hutson, Jake Evans | 2–2 | 24% → 47% |
| P3 12:40 | MTL | Ivan Demidov from Alex Newhook, Kaiden Guhle | 3–2 | 49% → 83% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Texier L | 14:49 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.03 | +0.80 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Demidov R | 12:50 | 1 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.15 | +0.52 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 19:43 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.10 | +0.75 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kaiden Guhle D | 23:19 | 1 | +0.10 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Zachary Bolduc R | 11:03 | +0.09 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Kapanen C | 13:34 | +0.06 | +0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 15:34 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 8:48 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 13:04 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Dobson D | 23:39 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirby Dach C | 14:14 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 17:21 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Phillip Danault C | 15:33 | −0.21 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jayden Struble D | 9:12 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 19:45 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.10 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lane Hutson D | 23:30 | 1 | −0.41 | +0.14 | −0.18 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Anderson R | 14:30 | −0.49 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 22:59 | −0.51 | −0.25 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Fowler G | 60:00 | +1.82 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Batherson R | 18:55 | 2 | +1.68 | +0.32 | +1.35 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikolas Matinpalo D | 11:51 | +0.24 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 21:16 | 2 | +0.12 | +0.22 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Jordan Spence D | 20:30 | +0.09 | +0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Kleven D | 19:49 | +0.06 | +0.15 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ridly Greig C | 14:45 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 14:28 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 10:04 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 11:34 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.27 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 13:05 | −0.15 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 28:32 | −0.19 | +0.08 | −0.27 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 20:18 | −0.20 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 16:26 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.27 | −0.51 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Warren Foegele L | 11:29 | −0.23 | −0.08 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Amadio R | 16:09 | −0.23 | −0.07 | −0.37 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Claude Giroux R | 14:42 | 1 | −0.33 | +0.13 | −0.45 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Shane Pinto C | 16:36 | −0.39 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 17:07 | −0.75 | +0.23 | −0.78 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 57:38 | −0.66 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.