NSH beat SEA 4–2. NSH lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 4.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Ryan Ufko scored at 14:25 of the second, moving NSH’s win probability from 47% to 70%. Juuse Saros saved 2.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–SEA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:14 |  SEA | Kaapo Kakko from Shane Wright | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 9:46 | SEA | Matty Beniers from Jared McCann, Vince Dunn | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P2 4:14 | NSH | Tyson Jost from Fedor Svechkov, Jonathan Marchessault | 1–2 | 13% → 28% |
| P2 10:19 | NSH | Reid Schaefer from Matthew Wood, Brady Skjei | 2–2 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 14:25 | NSH | Ryan Ufko from Jonathan Marchessault, Ryan O'Reilly | 3–2 | 47% → 70% |
| P3 19:55 | NSH | Steven StamkosEN from Nicolas Hague | 4–2 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Ufko D | 13:05 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.07 | +0.77 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Reid Schaefer L | 11:09 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.09 | +0.72 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Jost C | 9:52 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.17 | +0.82 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Roman Josi D | 24:42 | +0.22 | +0.13 | −0.15 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 19:20 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.10 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 17:56 | 2 | +0.05 | +0.11 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Hague D | 24:31 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Wood R | 12:11 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.13 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Joakim Kemell R | 7:11 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary L'Heureux L | 14:51 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 19:39 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Brady Skjei D | 23:24 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Evangelista R | 18:25 | −0.15 | −0.05 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Forsberg L | 19:34 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Barron D | 10:45 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Fedor Svechkov C | 11:32 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.04 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Nick Perbix D | 22:06 | −0.35 | −0.31 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 18:03 | −0.36 | −0.18 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 59:44 | +2.30 |
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matty Beniers C | 17:58 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.06 | +0.66 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jared McCann L | 19:26 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.20 | −0.24 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Ryan Lindgren D | 19:42 | +0.14 | +0.16 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaapo Kakko R | 14:30 | 1 | +0.13 | −0.05 | +0.38 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Eberle R | 20:21 | +0.10 | +0.20 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 19:55 | +0.00 | +0.15 | −0.26 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.09 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 21:54 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.09 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 14:49 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryker Evans D | 17:28 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Montour D | 24:42 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Wright C | 14:26 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Ben Meyers C | 8:51 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Jacob Melanson R | 8:25 | −0.19 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Winterton C | 9:28 | −0.27 | −0.09 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 19:31 | −0.29 | −0.09 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Berkly Catton C | 14:27 | −0.39 | −0.02 | −0.36 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 16:41 | −0.59 | −0.00 | −0.59 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 17:15 | −0.62 | +0.31 | −0.90 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Daccord G | 58:11 | −1.24 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.