CAR beat PIT 5–4 in a shootout. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 5.6 to 4.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Bryan Rust scored on the power play at 19:24 of the third, moving PIT’s win probability from 4% to 49%. Stuart Skinner saved 1.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:46 | CAR | Logan Stankoven from Mike Reilly, Jackson Blake | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 19:04 |  PIT | Anthony Mantha from Ville Koivunen | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 11:44 | PIT | Bryan RustPP from Egor Chinakhov, Erik Karlsson | 2–1 | 48% → 69% |
| P3 2:49 | CAR | Mark Jankowski from William Carrier, Alexander Nikishin | 2–2 | 26% → 52% |
| P3 3:48 | CAR | Seth Jarvis from Andrei Svechnikov | 2–3 | 52% → 79% |
| P3 11:21 | CAR | Alexander NikishinPP from Sebastian Aho, Nikolaj Ehlers | 2–4 | 90% → 97% |
| P3 17:52 | PIT | Noel AcciariPP from Bryan Rust, Egor Chinakhov | 3–4 | 0% → 7% |
| P3 19:24 | PIT | Bryan RustPP from Rickard Rakell, Erik Karlsson | 4–4 | 4% → 49% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Rust R | 23:14 | 2 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.21 | +1.07 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 |
| Noel Acciari C | 15:24 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.16 | +0.76 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.00 | |
| Ben Kindel C | 13:47 | +0.41 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.66 | ||
| Ville Koivunen R | 10:37 | 1 | +0.33 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.20 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Anthony Mantha R | 14:23 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.32 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | −0.49 | |
| Erik Karlsson D | 28:01 | 2 | +0.02 | +0.39 | −0.18 | −0.15 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tommy Novak C | 18:35 | −0.07 | +0.22 | −0.30 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Avery Hayes R | 9:24 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Parker Wotherspoon D | 18:10 | −0.15 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elmer Soderblom L | 12:23 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.35 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 12:58 | −0.19 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 20:51 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | |
| Ilya Solovyov D | 14:01 | −0.20 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Lizotte C | 14:12 | −0.35 | −0.31 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Egor Chinakhov R | 22:26 | 2 | −0.43 | +0.06 | −0.25 | +0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.38 | |
| Ryan Shea D | 20:43 | −0.48 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Clifton D | 16:00 | −0.49 | −0.29 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 22:14 | −0.54 | −0.37 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 63:06 | +1.29 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 17:45 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.60 | |
| Jackson Blake R | 15:14 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.17 | −0.49 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +1.01 | |
| Taylor Hall L | 14:05 | +0.45 | +0.16 | −0.00 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.39 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Alexander Nikishin D | 19:49 | 1 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.15 | +0.38 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Logan Stankoven C | 13:54 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.11 | +0.35 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | |
| Mark Jankowski L | 10:46 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.08 | +0.26 | −0.12 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | |
| Mike Reilly D | 12:11 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.08 | −0.08 | +0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 17:18 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.21 | −0.36 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Jalen Chatfield D | 20:51 | +0.03 | +0.18 | −0.02 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 18:07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | −0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 10:01 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.09 | −0.07 | +0.15 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Sean Walker D | 20:38 | −0.07 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.11 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 24:01 | −0.16 | +0.06 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 8:49 | −0.17 | +0.09 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 22:00 | −0.25 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 17:47 | −0.28 | +0.04 | −0.27 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 22:07 | 1 | −0.49 | +0.02 | −0.46 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | |
| Seth Jarvis R | 20:45 | 1 | −0.76 | −0.01 | −0.32 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 65:00 | −0.29 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.