FLA beat DET 4–3. FLA lost the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Carter Verhaeghe scored at 19:45 of the third, moving FLA’s win probability from 51% to 97%. John Gibson allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:48 | FLA | Vinnie Hinostroza from Jesper Boqvist, Gustav Forsling | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 3:54 |  DET | Patrick Kane from Moritz Seider, Alex DeBrincat | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 12:59 | DET | Justin Faulk from Andrew Copp | 2–1 | 47% → 69% |
| P3 5:10 | FLA | Niko Mikkola from Vinnie Hinostroza | 2–2 | 24% → 52% |
| P3 6:32 | DET | Marco Kasper from Emmitt Finnie, Justin Faulk | 3–2 | 48% → 77% |
| P3 18:30 | FLA | Carter VerhaeghePP from Matthew Tkachuk | 3–3 | 7% → 50% |
| P3 19:45 | FLA | Carter Verhaeghe from Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Bennett | 3–4 | 51% → 97% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Kane R | 18:01 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.30 | +0.55 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Faulk D | 20:48 | 1 | 1 | +0.50 | −0.32 | +0.83 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Marco Kasper C | 16:26 | 1 | +0.24 | −0.12 | +0.33 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Moritz Seider D | 25:40 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.34 | −0.23 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.T. Compher L | 17:30 | +0.12 | +0.11 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Albert Johansson D | 14:24 | +0.11 | +0.12 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 15:12 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emmitt Finnie C | 15:44 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Simon Edvinsson D | 21:20 | −0.10 | +0.21 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominik Shine R | 7:03 | −0.10 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 16:26 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.05 | ||
| Michael Brandsegg-Nygård R | 12:07 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 19:34 | −0.16 | −0.27 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Appleton C | 16:44 | −0.18 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| James van Riemsdyk L | 8:31 | −0.19 | +0.05 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lucas Raymond L | 18:43 | −0.27 | −0.08 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 10:01 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.10 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Alex DeBrincat R | 20:01 | 1 | −0.36 | +0.22 | −0.41 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 59:45 | −1.32 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 17:09 | 2 | +1.60 | +0.08 | +1.53 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Niko Mikkola D | 17:59 | 1 | +0.80 | −0.25 | +0.88 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 9:41 | 1 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.16 | +0.83 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mackie Samoskevich R | 17:40 | +0.29 | +0.39 | −0.28 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 21:42 | +0.16 | +0.13 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Donovan Sebrango D | 19:32 | +0.12 | +0.13 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 19:03 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Nosek L | 15:30 | +0.07 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| A.J. Greer L | 15:48 | −0.05 | +0.11 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Anton Lundell C | 18:32 | −0.07 | +0.04 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 16:21 | −0.20 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 11:10 | −0.23 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Jesper Boqvist C | 13:19 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 15:52 | 2 | −0.33 | +0.21 | −0.57 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 14:05 | −0.34 | −0.20 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Uvis Balinskis D | 15:49 | −0.34 | −0.22 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Forsling D | 20:36 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.25 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Bennett C | 16:52 | 1 | −0.37 | +0.22 | −0.45 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.07 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Daniil Tarasov G | 59:20 | +0.21 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.