COL beat MIN 3–2 in a shootout. COL also won the expected-goals battle 4.7 to 3.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Nicolas Roy scored at 12:39 of the third, moving COL’s win probability from 17% to 51%. Jesper Wallstedt saved 2.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 12:19 | COL | Nathan MacKinnon from Nazem Kadri | 0–1 | 53% → 74% |
| P3 4:17 |  MIN | Kirill KaprizovPP from Quinn Hughes, Joel Eriksson Ek | 1–1 | 22% → 48% |
| P3 7:01 | MIN | Nico SturmSH from Brock Faber | 2–1 | 47% → 76% |
| P3 12:39 | COL | Nicolas Roy from Brett Kulak, Joel Kiviranta | 2–2 | 17% → 51% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Sturm C | 7:47 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.03 | +0.84 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Nick Foligno L | 9:00 | +0.12 | +0.15 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brock Faber D | 28:14 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Hartman R | 17:30 | +0.08 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Bobby Brink R | 12:52 | +0.02 | +0.14 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 17:53 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 21:34 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | |
| Zach Bogosian D | 13:23 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 17:48 | −0.10 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 17:48 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 10:44 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 22:26 | −0.20 | −0.43 | −0.41 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.60 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 15:03 | −0.37 | −0.00 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 22:41 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.57 | +0.66 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 | |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 14:36 | −0.58 | +0.07 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 26:48 | 1 | −0.66 | −0.47 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.06 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Danila Yurov R | 12:39 | −0.69 | +0.01 | −0.67 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 17:48 | −0.83 | −0.03 | −0.53 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jesper Wallstedt G | 64:29 | +2.28 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 22:29 | 1 | +1.35 | +0.64 | −0.19 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +1.01 | |
| Cale Makar D | 25:00 | +1.03 | +0.54 | +0.00 | +0.07 | +0.03 | +0.39 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 15:42 | +0.48 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.66 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 12:16 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.02 | +0.42 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Brett Kulak D | 18:04 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Manson D | 14:14 | +0.05 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 24:06 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 14:06 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Gavin Brindley C | 10:05 | −0.06 | +0.04 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Zakhar Bardakov C | 6:12 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Sam Malinski D | 17:44 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 25:43 | −0.12 | +0.06 | −0.24 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 14:58 | −0.17 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 18:41 | −0.36 | −0.39 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 13:11 | 1 | −0.42 | −0.06 | −0.36 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Ross Colton C | 12:41 | −0.68 | −0.17 | −0.29 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 21:47 | 1 | −0.70 | +0.46 | −0.88 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.49 | |
| Martin Necas C | 25:01 | −1.01 | +0.24 | −0.84 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.38 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 63:56 | +1.95 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.