OTT beat SEA 7–4. OTT also won the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 1.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Dylan Cozens scored at 13:35 of the first, moving OTT’s win probability from 47% to 64%. Joey Daccord allowed 3.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–SEA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:45 |  SEA | Jacob Melanson from Ben Meyers, Ryan Winterton | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 9:19 |  OTT | Tyler Kleven from Shane Pinto, Michael Amadio | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 13:35 | OTT | Dylan Cozens from Thomas Chabot, Nick Jensen | 2–1 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 1:34 | OTT | Shane Pinto from Artem Zub, Nick Cousins | 3–1 | 66% → 81% |
| P2 10:09 | OTT | Michael Amadio from Shane Pinto, Nick Cousins | 4–1 | 84% → 95% |
| P2 15:00 | SEA | Eeli Tolvanen unassisted | 4–2 | 4% → 13% |
| P3 2:42 | OTT | Warren Foegele from Lars Eller | 5–2 | 91% → 98% |
| P3 3:58 | OTT | Tim Stützle from Drake Batherson | 6–2 | 98% → 100% |
| P3 7:24 | OTT | Brady Tkachuk from Thomas Chabot | 7–2 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 10:16 | SEA | Matty Beniers from Cale Fleury, Jordan Eberle | 7–3 | 0% → 0% |
| P3 17:45 | SEA | Brandon MontourPP from Vince Dunn, Jordan Eberle | 7–4 | 0% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cozens C | 16:05 | 1 | +1.02 | +0.02 | +0.84 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Tim Stützle C | 17:51 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.09 | +0.71 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Michael Amadio R | 14:40 | 1 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.07 | +0.73 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Tyler Kleven D | 19:13 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.09 | +0.80 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brady Tkachuk L | 15:18 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.04 | +0.57 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Warren Foegele L | 11:49 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.02 | +0.66 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Claude Giroux R | 12:50 | +0.15 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 20:32 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shane Pinto C | 18:18 | 1 | 2 | +0.11 | +0.08 | +0.39 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.39 | +0.03 |
| Artem Zub D | 21:55 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.13 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Cousins C | 13:40 | 2 | +0.01 | +0.08 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 11:42 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Sanderson D | 12:52 | −0.07 | +0.12 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ridly Greig C | 17:11 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.35 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Jordan Spence D | 18:19 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 26:12 | 2 | −0.24 | +0.02 | −0.27 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Drake Batherson R | 12:56 | 1 | −0.34 | +0.08 | −0.43 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lars Eller C | 10:44 | 1 | −0.74 | −0.00 | −0.57 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 59:41 | −1.99 |
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Melanson R | 11:10 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.05 | +0.77 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matty Beniers C | 17:46 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.19 | +0.84 | −0.02 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 17:13 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.01 | +0.85 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Montour D | 28:18 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.10 | +0.68 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jared McCann L | 14:49 | +0.17 | −0.20 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryker Evans D | 15:29 | +0.14 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cale Fleury D | 15:30 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shane Wright C | 15:10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 6:27 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Winterton C | 14:02 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kaapo Kakko R | 16:06 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Berkly Catton C | 18:02 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 15:18 | −0.12 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 23:08 | −0.13 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Meyers C | 14:02 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Vince Dunn D | 18:07 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chandler Stephenson C | 19:09 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 16:14 | 2 | −0.87 | −0.15 | −0.52 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Daccord G | 60:00 | −2.99 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.