MTL beat LAK 4–3. MTL lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 4.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Nick Suzuki scored at 15:27 of the third, moving MTL’s win probability from 49% to 88%. Jakub Dobes saved 1.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–LAK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:12 |  LAK | Anze Kopitar from Adrian Kempe, Artemi Panarin | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 3:09 | MTL | Jake Evans from Kirby Dach, Zachary Bolduc | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 15:41 | MTL | Juraj Slafkovský from Nick Suzuki, Alexandre Carrier | 2–1 | 47% → 70% |
| P2 17:31 | LAK | Scott Laughton from Jared Wright, Brandt Clarke | 2–2 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 6:44 | LAK | Alex Laferriere from Brandt Clarke, Trevor Moore | 2–3 | 52% → 81% |
| P3 14:38 | MTL | Juraj SlafkovskýPP from Lane Hutson, Nick Suzuki | 3–3 | 13% → 49% |
| P3 15:27 | MTL | Nick Suzuki from Juraj Slafkovský, Cole Caufield | 4–3 | 49% → 88% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 16:38 | 2 | 1 | +1.35 | +0.07 | +1.28 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jake Evans C | 17:03 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.13 | +0.87 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Suzuki C | 17:14 | 1 | 2 | +0.36 | +0.15 | +0.38 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 |
| Noah Dobson D | 21:31 | +0.17 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 9:51 | +0.12 | +0.15 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 15:18 | +0.06 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Lane Hutson D | 21:55 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.26 | −0.29 | +0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zachary Bolduc R | 13:39 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Caufield R | 13:16 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.13 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexandre Carrier D | 18:31 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Demidov R | 11:30 | −0.17 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirby Dach C | 13:48 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Arber Xhekaj D | 9:10 | −0.32 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 24:25 | −0.35 | −0.29 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 13:53 | −0.40 | +0.09 | −0.48 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 13:18 | −0.44 | −0.39 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Kaiden Guhle D | 24:26 | −0.51 | −0.30 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Kapanen C | 18:34 | −0.83 | −0.43 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes G | 60:00 | +1.40 |
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Laughton C | 15:08 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.12 | +0.81 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Anze Kopitar C | 22:53 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.23 | +0.35 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Laferriere R | 20:48 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.01 | +0.32 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.05 | |
| Joel Edmundson D | 18:02 | +0.11 | +0.21 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Turcotte C | 10:56 | +0.06 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brandt Clarke D | 24:38 | 2 | +0.03 | +0.25 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cody Ceci D | 12:59 | +0.02 | +0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Malott L | 6:42 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Ward R | 8:04 | −0.05 | +0.11 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikey Anderson D | 19:50 | −0.07 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Doughty D | 23:04 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 14:31 | −0.10 | +0.07 | −0.15 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Wright R | 10:44 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.08 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adrian Kempe R | 22:10 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.20 | −0.39 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Artemi Panarin L | 23:46 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.26 | −0.56 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Quinton Byfield R | 21:26 | −0.19 | −0.10 | −0.31 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Samuel Helenius C | 7:08 | −0.26 | +0.13 | −0.40 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Trevor Moore L | 18:05 | 1 | −0.50 | −0.09 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Darcy Kuemper G | 58:37 | −1.29 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.