UTA beat CBJ 5–4 in overtime. UTA lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Logan Cooley scored at 2:08 of overtime, moving UTA’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Elvis Merzlikins allowed 2.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | UTA–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:25 |  UTA | Michael Carcone from Kevin Stenlund, Alexander Kerfoot | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 19:25 | CBJ | Damon Severson from Charlie Coyle, Mathieu Olivier | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 12:12 | UTA | Dylan Guenther from Clayton Keller, Nick DeSimone | 2–1 | 47% → 69% |
| P2 16:03 | CBJ | Mathieu Olivier from Charlie Coyle, Damon Severson | 2–2 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 3:00 | UTA | Alexander Kerfoot from Michael Carcone, MacKenzie Weegar | 3–2 | 48% → 74% |
| P3 4:54 | UTA | Logan Cooley from Lawson Crouse, Ian Cole | 4–2 | 76% → 92% |
| P3 13:38 | CBJ | Adam Fantilli from Mason Marchment, Kirill Marchenko | 4–3 | 2% → 15% |
| P3 14:08 | CBJ | Mason Marchment from Kirill Marchenko, Adam Fantilli | 4–4 | 15% → 51% |
| OT 2:08 | UTA | Logan Cooley from Clayton Keller, John Marino | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Cooley C | 18:02 | 2 | +1.17 | −0.07 | +1.21 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 10:12 | 1 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.13 | +0.90 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Michael Carcone L | 9:58 | 1 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.23 | +0.82 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Dylan Guenther R | 18:18 | 1 | +0.33 | +0.04 | +0.50 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nick DeSimone D | 15:05 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ian Cole D | 18:07 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 18:29 | 2 | +0.11 | +0.11 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 23:21 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.12 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 19:56 | −0.05 | +0.07 | −0.22 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 12:56 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 17:02 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nate Schmidt D | 21:02 | −0.25 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 14:04 | −0.26 | −0.18 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 14:40 | −0.27 | −0.03 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 15:34 | −0.29 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Sean Durzi D | 23:06 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.29 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Marino D | 20:47 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.32 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Stenlund C | 11:45 | 1 | −0.41 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 62:08 | −0.29 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Severson D | 23:14 | 1 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.10 | +0.86 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mason Marchment L | 19:20 | 1 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.23 | +0.29 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mathieu Olivier R | 11:29 | 1 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.18 | +0.57 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Adam Fantilli C | 20:04 | 1 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.22 | +0.27 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| Denton Mateychuk D | 18:13 | +0.25 | +0.24 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Boone Jenner C | 11:59 | +0.09 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Egor Zamula D | 11:14 | +0.05 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Isac Lundeström C | 11:40 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Conor Garland R | 16:40 | −0.06 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 17:08 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 23:22 | −0.08 | +0.10 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Werenski D | 26:53 | −0.09 | +0.06 | −0.17 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Miles Wood L | 11:05 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 14:25 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kent Johnson C | 15:45 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 14:58 | 2 | −0.24 | +0.17 | −0.40 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kirill Marchenko R | 19:58 | 2 | −0.25 | +0.22 | −0.48 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Monahan C | 16:57 | −0.32 | −0.04 | −0.27 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 62:08 | −2.53 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.