PHI beat PIT 4–3 in a shootout. PHI lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 3.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Denver Barkey scored at 10:03 of the second, moving PHI’s win probability from 26% to 47%. Stuart Skinner allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PHI–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:00 | PIT | Tommy NovakPP from Justin Brazeau, Ville Koivunen | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P1 3:54 |  PHI | Owen Tippett from Trevor Zegras, Cam York | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P2 3:38 | PIT | Rickard Rakell from Egor Chinakhov, Bryan Rust | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 4:46 | PHI | Alex Bump from Nikita Grebenkin | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 5:45 | PIT | Erik Karlsson from Egor Chinakhov, Rickard Rakell | 2–3 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 10:03 | PHI | Denver Barkey from Matvei Michkov, Noah Cates | 3–3 | 26% → 47% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Tippett R | 16:25 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.05 | +0.73 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Alex Bump L | 16:07 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.08 | +0.76 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Denver Barkey C | 14:41 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.02 | +0.53 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Trevor Zegras C | 18:15 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.13 | −0.31 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.79 | |
| Noah Cates L | 19:19 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | |
| Emil Andrae D | 7:36 | +0.12 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Juulsen D | 11:27 | +0.07 | +0.12 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 11:44 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 10:19 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nikita Grebenkin R | 10:30 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Travis Sanheim D | 28:26 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Couturier C | 16:55 | −0.06 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 23:26 | −0.10 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matvei Michkov R | 16:46 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.18 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 | |
| Jamie Drysdale D | 22:18 | −0.23 | +0.04 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Grundstrom R | 9:51 | −0.24 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Cam York D | 30:48 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.28 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Dvorak C | 20:47 | −0.43 | −0.04 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar G | 65:00 | +0.40 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Karlsson D | 26:12 | 1 | +0.93 | −0.12 | +0.87 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tommy Novak C | 17:10 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.10 | +0.78 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Rickard Rakell R | 22:06 | 1 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.15 | +0.40 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.39 | −0.01 | −0.38 |
| Blake Lizotte C | 15:02 | +0.07 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Parker Wotherspoon D | 17:48 | +0.06 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Avery Hayes R | 7:48 | +0.06 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan Shea D | 15:32 | +0.05 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 17:38 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Clifton D | 15:04 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Brazeau R | 15:22 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.05 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Ville Koivunen R | 12:35 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Kris Letang D | 23:55 | −0.15 | +0.14 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noel Acciari C | 13:27 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 24:19 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.08 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Connor Dewar C | 14:02 | −0.37 | +0.08 | −0.44 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Egor Chinakhov R | 21:02 | 2 | −0.42 | +0.04 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.33 | |
| Ben Kindel C | 15:16 | −0.43 | −0.25 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 18:51 | −0.50 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.32 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 65:00 | −1.80 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.