BUF beat NSH 3–2. Expected goals were close to even (NSH 2.6, BUF 2.3), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Jason Zucker scored at 14:17 of the second, moving BUF’s win probability from 53% to 75%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 1:17 | NSH | Zachary L'Heureux from Jonathan Marchessault, Ryan O'Reilly | 1–0 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 12:39 | BUF | Tage Thompson from Alex Tuch | 1–1 | 31% → 53% |
| P2 14:17 | BUF | Jason Zucker from Jack Quinn, Rasmus Dahlin | 1–2 | 53% → 75% |
| P3 0:16 | BUF | Josh Doan from Josh Norris, Noah Ostlund | 1–3 | 77% → 92% |
| P3 16:08 | NSH | Matthew WoodPP from Roman Josi, Steven Stamkos | 2–3 | 1% → 10% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Wood R | 15:57 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.05 | +0.63 | −0.11 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Zachary L'Heureux L | 13:26 | 1 | +0.33 | +0.05 | +0.30 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Joakim Kemell R | 15:00 | +0.15 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Fedor Svechkov C | 9:49 | +0.10 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 17:03 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Hague D | 20:59 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 16:12 | −0.03 | +0.20 | −0.13 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 21:35 | −0.05 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ozzy Wiesblatt C | 9:21 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 21:20 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.14 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| Justin Barron D | 12:49 | −0.11 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Perbix D | 18:41 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Ufko D | 13:44 | −0.17 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 25:56 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.05 | −0.17 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Forsberg L | 18:48 | −0.19 | +0.07 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Evangelista R | 15:48 | −0.20 | +0.08 | −0.20 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 10:47 | −0.28 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 17:53 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.08 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 58:52 | −0.70 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Zucker L | 14:42 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.09 | +0.30 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Norris C | 16:37 | 1 | +0.33 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Josh Doan R | 16:11 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.08 | +0.24 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tage Thompson C | 18:53 | 1 | +0.11 | −0.11 | +0.27 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Beck Malenstyn L | 9:12 | +0.10 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Ostlund C | 14:46 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 21:19 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 24:36 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Kesselring D | 10:28 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Metsa D | 11:38 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Carrick C | 8:55 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Power D | 23:02 | −0.05 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 23:11 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Benson L | 9:32 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 14:10 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.10 | −0.22 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan McLeod C | 17:32 | −0.19 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.05 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 14:27 | −0.21 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 24:36 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon G | 60:00 | +0.91 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.