COL beat DAL 5–4 in a shootout. COL lost the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Valeri Nichushkin scored on the power play at 19:45 of the third, moving COL’s win probability from 3% to 49%. Mackenzie Blackwood allowed 2.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–DAL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:33 |  COL | Cale MakarPP from Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 7:11 |  DAL | Miro HeiskanenPP from Jason Robertson, Wyatt Johnston | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 10:39 | DAL | Wyatt Johnston from Miro Heiskanen, Jason Robertson | 1–2 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 16:07 | DAL | Justin Hryckowian from Mavrik Bourque | 1–3 | 71% → 85% |
| P1 19:58 | COL | Nathan MacKinnonPP from Martin Necas, Cale Makar | 2–3 | 15% → 28% |
| P2 1:52 | DAL | Jamie Benn from Justin Hryckowian, Mavrik Bourque | 2–4 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 8:06 | COL | Martin Necas from Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog | 3–4 | 12% → 27% |
| P3 19:45 | COL | Valeri NichushkinPP from Martin Necas, Brock Nelson | 4–4 | 3% → 49% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 19:15 | 1 | +1.30 | +0.07 | +0.55 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.66 | |
| Cale Makar D | 27:46 | 1 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.36 | +0.63 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.39 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 27:21 | 1 | 2 | +0.68 | −0.26 | +0.79 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 |
| Martin Necas C | 26:55 | 1 | 3 | +0.40 | −0.10 | +0.28 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.22 |
| Brent Burns D | 17:12 | +0.27 | +0.08 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zakhar Bardakov C | 6:09 | +0.10 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 8:46 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 10:54 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Sam Malinski D | 17:12 | −0.11 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 13:46 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 22:54 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.00 | |
| Parker Kelly C | 12:46 | −0.15 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Gavin Brindley C | 7:07 | −0.17 | +0.06 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 24:50 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.06 | −0.26 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Josh Manson D | 15:36 | −0.30 | +0.04 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 11:38 | −0.32 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 16:07 | −0.37 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 23:43 | −0.42 | +0.07 | −0.52 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 41:01 | +2.09 |
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 21:47 | −2.65 |
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miro Heiskanen D | 31:46 | 1 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.36 | +0.57 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Justin Hryckowian C | 20:22 | 1 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.32 | +0.64 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 |
| Jamie Benn L | 15:27 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.25 | +0.59 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Wyatt Johnston C | 24:14 | 1 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.02 | +0.79 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 |
| Nils Lundkvist D | 15:46 | +0.28 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 25:48 | +0.11 | +0.18 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Erne L | 12:09 | +0.08 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Colin Blackwell C | 10:37 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nathan Bastian R | 8:16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Roope Hintz C | 11:26 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Lian Bichsel D | 12:37 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Harley D | 23:36 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 10:20 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Bäck C | 10:53 | −0.13 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 17:47 | −0.15 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mavrik Bourque C | 17:10 | 2 | −0.36 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.00 | |
| Matt Duchene C | 17:41 | −0.77 | −0.08 | −0.39 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.29 | ||
| Jason Robertson L | 22:12 | 2 | −0.85 | +0.00 | −0.55 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger G | 64:36 | −1.52 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.