NYR beat TOR 6–2. NYR lost the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Alexis Lafrenière scored at 5:38 of the third, moving NYR’s win probability from 52% to 80%. Joseph Woll allowed 2.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:13 | TOR | Matias Maccelli from William Nylander | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 6:45 |  NYR | Will Cuylle from Braden Schneider | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P2 5:27 | TOR | Easton Cowan from Matthew Knies, John Tavares | 2–1 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 7:29 | NYR | Vladislav GavrikovPP from Taylor Raddysh, Jonny Brodzinski | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| P3 5:38 | NYR | Alexis Lafrenière from Mika Zibanejad | 2–3 | 52% → 80% |
| P3 10:27 | NYR | Jaroslav Chmelar unassisted | 2–4 | 83% → 96% |
| P3 11:19 | NYR | Mika Zibanejad from Alexis Lafrenière, Adam Fox | 2–5 | 97% → 100% |
| P3 17:09 | NYR | Will CuylleEN from Alexis Lafrenière, Mika Zibanejad | 2–6 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Easton Cowan R | 16:48 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.07 | +0.76 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matias Maccelli L | 19:32 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.05 | +0.70 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Carlo D | 19:48 | +0.12 | +0.11 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 20:25 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 13:09 | −0.05 | +0.05 | −0.35 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 20:47 | −0.07 | +0.15 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dakota Joshua C | 13:27 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Benoit D | 15:36 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 11:40 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Philippe Myers D | 18:26 | −0.11 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Lorentz C | 11:07 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jacob Quillan C | 9:53 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| William Nylander R | 18:18 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.11 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jake McCabe D | 20:23 | −0.20 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Auston Matthews C | 20:46 | −0.37 | +0.12 | −0.64 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.12 | ||
| John Tavares C | 17:11 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.15 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Nicholas Robertson L | 14:42 | −0.54 | −0.06 | −0.47 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Matthew Knies L | 17:39 | 1 | −0.56 | −0.13 | −0.42 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joseph Woll G | 57:00 | −2.42 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 22:25 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.23 | +0.70 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mika Zibanejad C | 21:12 | 1 | 2 | +0.89 | +0.08 | +0.81 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Jaroslav Chmelar R | 9:32 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.09 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Will Cuylle L | 17:57 | 2 | +0.49 | −0.00 | +0.49 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 20:55 | 1 | 2 | +0.48 | +0.01 | +0.49 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Adam Fox D | 23:13 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.19 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Conor Sheary L | 15:03 | +0.12 | +0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Borgen D | 18:04 | +0.09 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Edstrom C | 8:54 | +0.04 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Laba C | 15:51 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tye Kartye L | 16:55 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 19:56 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Robertson D | 17:51 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonny Brodzinski C | 13:11 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Vincent Iorio D | 16:14 | −0.17 | −0.09 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabe Perreault R | 17:48 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Raddysh R | 13:40 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Juuso Parssinen C | 9:23 | −0.23 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 59:56 | +1.49 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.