SJS beat MTL 7–5. SJS lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Kiefer Sherwood scored on the power play at 16:34 of the third, moving SJS’s win probability from 52% to 91%. Jakub Dobes allowed 2.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:18 | MTL | Oliver Kapanen from Juraj Slafkovský, Mike Matheson | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 15:32 |  SJS | Collin Graf from Will Smith, Macklin Celebrini | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 5:09 | MTL | Phillip Danault from Mike Matheson, Jake Evans | 2–1 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 10:28 | SJS | Michael Misa unassisted | 2–2 | 31% → 53% |
| P2 18:23 | SJS | Macklin Celebrini from Collin Graf | 2–3 | 53% → 76% |
| P2 18:48 | SJS | Alexander Wennberg from Kiefer Sherwood | 2–4 | 77% → 91% |
| P3 3:29 | SJS | Will SmithPP from Macklin Celebrini, Dmitry Orlov | 2–5 | 94% → 99% |
| P3 5:02 | MTL | Ivan DemidovPP from Lane Hutson, Nick Suzuki | 3–5 | 1% → 6% |
| P3 5:20 | MTL | Alex Newhook from Jake Evans, Kaiden Guhle | 4–5 | 6% → 20% |
| P3 10:56 | MTL | Alex NewhookPP from Brendan Gallagher, Mike Matheson | 5–5 | 17% → 48% |
| P3 16:34 | SJS | Kiefer SherwoodPP from Philipp Kurashev, William Eklund | 5–6 | 52% → 91% |
| P3 19:56 | SJS | Adam GaudetteEN from Macklin Celebrini | 5–7 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Newhook C | 15:53 | 2 | +1.47 | +0.08 | +1.41 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Ivan Demidov R | 15:43 | 1 | +1.17 | +0.35 | +0.61 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Phillip Danault C | 13:46 | 1 | +1.11 | +0.32 | +0.81 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Kapanen C | 9:55 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.07 | +0.65 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Kaiden Guhle D | 20:14 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.32 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lane Hutson D | 25:03 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.12 | −0.10 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Evans C | 15:36 | 2 | +0.18 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.09 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 24:18 | 3 | +0.05 | +0.14 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 18:31 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.36 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jayden Struble D | 8:47 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Bolduc R | 13:10 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 20:58 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 20:48 | −0.07 | +0.20 | −0.45 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 12:39 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirby Dach C | 14:32 | −0.18 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 11:17 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.16 | −0.38 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Suzuki C | 22:26 | 1 | −0.33 | +0.13 | −0.27 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Josh Anderson R | 10:04 | −0.49 | +0.19 | −0.48 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes G | 58:03 | −2.79 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Smith C | 19:37 | 1 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.09 | +0.74 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 13:46 | 1 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.11 | +0.57 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Michael Misa C | 12:37 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.29 | +0.69 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Collin Graf R | 13:11 | 1 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.13 | +0.35 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| John Klingberg D | 15:56 | +0.13 | +0.19 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 19:44 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.01 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Barclay Goodrow C | 11:41 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack Ostapchuk C | 11:37 | +0.05 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philipp Kurashev C | 12:58 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Shakir Mukhamadullin D | 19:06 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 18:54 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.39 | +0.53 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Macklin Celebrini C | 22:49 | 1 | 3 | −0.10 | −0.14 | +0.28 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.05 |
| William Eklund L | 14:43 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Gaudette R | 10:32 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.21 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Sam Dickinson D | 16:51 | −0.27 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 11:54 | −0.28 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 22:25 | −0.29 | −0.30 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Desharnais D | 20:45 | −0.31 | −0.33 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Yaroslav Askarov G | 59:48 | −1.51 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.