DET beat NSH 4–2. DET lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Albert Johansson scored short-handed at 16:36 of the second, moving DET’s win probability from 47% to 70%. Cam Talbot saved 1.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:51 | DET | Emmitt Finnie from Marco Kasper, Mason Appleton | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 17:02 |  NSH | Filip ForsbergPP from Luke Evangelista, Roman Josi | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 7:10 | NSH | Jonathan Marchessault from Ryan O'Reilly | 1–2 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 9:45 | DET | Lucas Raymond from Alex DeBrincat, Andrew Copp | 2–2 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 16:36 | DET | Albert JohanssonSH from Marco Kasper, Mason Appleton | 3–2 | 47% → 70% |
| P3 19:32 | DET | Alex DeBrincatEN from Lucas Raymond | 4–2 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Johansson D | 16:40 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.02 | +0.84 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lucas Raymond L | 17:59 | 1 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.03 | +0.52 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Emmitt Finnie C | 11:31 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.06 | +0.38 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marco Kasper C | 15:22 | 2 | +0.18 | +0.08 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Chiarot D | 23:45 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Edvinsson D | 22:52 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Axel Sandin-Pellikka D | 14:15 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 19:52 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 17:09 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Michael Rasmussen C | 17:29 | −0.11 | +0.11 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| James van Riemsdyk L | 11:16 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominik Shine R | 9:58 | −0.17 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Kane R | 14:47 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.24 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 11:05 | −0.19 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Moritz Seider D | 23:36 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Appleton C | 13:58 | 2 | −0.28 | +0.10 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Alex DeBrincat R | 17:02 | 1 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.08 | −0.23 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Dylan Larkin C | 19:46 | −0.77 | +0.13 | −0.71 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 60:00 | +1.07 |
| John Gibson G | 20:00 | +0.21 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 19:34 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.17 | +0.54 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Forsberg L | 18:52 | 1 | +0.30 | −0.15 | +0.46 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Steven Stamkos C | 19:47 | +0.27 | +0.21 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nick Blankenburg D | 15:39 | +0.23 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary L'Heureux L | 13:49 | +0.15 | +0.15 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Perbix D | 18:18 | +0.15 | +0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Hague D | 21:24 | −0.05 | +0.16 | −0.23 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Barron D | 9:07 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Wood R | 12:23 | −0.11 | +0.06 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 22:46 | −0.11 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 13:32 | −0.13 | +0.16 | −0.48 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Luke Evangelista R | 18:09 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Smith L | 11:35 | −0.17 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 26:09 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.05 | −0.16 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Haula L | 16:15 | −0.20 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 13:32 | −0.31 | −0.27 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 11:10 | −0.33 | −0.20 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 21:33 | 1 | −0.72 | +0.20 | −0.98 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 78:27 | +0.24 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.