CBJ beat NYR 5–4 in overtime. CBJ lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 2.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Kirill Marchenko scored at 1:04 of overtime, moving CBJ’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Igor Shesterkin allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:50 | CBJ | Adam Fantilli from Kirill Marchenko, Denton Mateychuk | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 15:32 | CBJ | Kirill MarchenkoPP from Ivan Provorov, Charlie Coyle | 2–0 | 65% → 79% |
| P2 3:27 | CBJ | Sean MonahanSH unassisted | 3–0 | 81% → 93% |
| P2 11:54 | CBJ | Mathieu Olivier from Charlie Coyle, Damon Severson | 4–0 | 96% → 99% |
| P3 0:30 | NYR | Vladislav Gavrikov from Alexis Lafrenière, Will Cuylle | 4–1 | 1% → 2% |
| P3 0:54 | NYR | Gabe Perreault unassisted | 4–2 | 2% → 10% |
| P3 12:52 | NYR | Will BorgenPP from Gabe Perreault, J.T. Miller | 4–3 | 3% → 17% |
| P3 15:14 | NYR | Gabe Perreault from Will Borgen, Vincent Trocheck | 4–4 | 13% → 51% |
| OT 1:04 | CBJ | Kirill Marchenko from Damon Severson, Adam Fantilli | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Marchenko R | 18:04 | 2 | 1 | +1.31 | −0.16 | +1.46 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Sean Monahan C | 17:03 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.11 | +0.54 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Adam Fantilli C | 17:55 | 1 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.16 | +0.69 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mathieu Olivier R | 16:09 | 1 | +0.49 | −0.17 | +0.67 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Egor Zamula D | 12:50 | +0.08 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 15:06 | +0.06 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Miles Wood L | 11:57 | +0.04 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Isac Lundeström C | 12:07 | −0.04 | +0.08 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 14:54 | −0.08 | +0.09 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 21:59 | 2 | −0.10 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Provorov D | 27:10 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 13:33 | −0.14 | +0.07 | −0.23 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 22:18 | −0.18 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Boone Jenner C | 16:37 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 15:01 | −0.32 | −0.11 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Denton Mateychuk D | 21:06 | 1 | −0.42 | −0.22 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Charlie Coyle C | 17:13 | 2 | −0.48 | −0.15 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Mason Marchment L | 17:13 | −0.57 | −0.22 | −0.38 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 61:04 | −0.77 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Perreault R | 17:18 | 2 | 1 | +1.22 | +0.19 | +1.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Will Borgen D | 17:37 | 1 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.20 | +0.73 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 25:22 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.12 | +0.72 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Robertson D | 16:21 | +0.24 | +0.09 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 19:03 | +0.19 | +0.21 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Iorio D | 14:22 | +0.08 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 19:23 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.17 | −0.20 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Sam Carrick C | 12:05 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 18:51 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.10 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Conor Sheary L | 11:38 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tye Kartye L | 13:20 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Fox D | 26:16 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Raddysh R | 11:28 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Cuylle L | 19:17 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.18 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Laba C | 13:19 | −0.12 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 20:43 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.12 | −0.29 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Brendan Brisson C | 11:28 | −0.21 | −0.09 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mika Zibanejad C | 20:11 | −0.41 | +0.17 | −0.58 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 70:42 | −1.77 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.