NYI beat FLA 5–4. NYI lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 3.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Anders Lee scored at 19:28 of the third, moving NYI’s win probability from 51% to 97%. Sergei Bobrovsky allowed 2.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:44 | FLA | Sandis Vilmanis from A.J. Greer, Sergei Bobrovsky | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 14:54 | FLA | Sam BennettPP from Aaron Ekblad, Matthew Tkachuk | 2–0 | 65% → 78% |
| P1 18:01 | NYI | Matthew Schaefer from Ryan Pulock, Mathew Barzal | 2–1 | 21% → 35% |
| P2 7:28 | NYI | Carson Soucy from Simon Holmstrom, Tony DeAngelo | 2–2 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 12:04 | FLA | Sam Bennett from Matthew Tkachuk | 3–2 | 47% → 69% |
| P2 17:14 | NYI | Bo Horvat from Matthew Schaefer | 3–3 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 10:29 | NYI | Matthew Schaefer from Ondrej Palat | 3–4 | 52% → 83% |
| P3 18:02 | FLA | Sam ReinhartPP from Aaron Ekblad, Matthew Tkachuk | 4–4 | 7% → 50% |
| P3 19:28 | NYI | Anders Lee from Tony DeAngelo, Adam Pelech | 4–5 | 51% → 97% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bennett C | 19:58 | 2 | +1.74 | +0.26 | +1.44 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Sandis Vilmanis L | 10:05 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.13 | +0.65 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Reinhart C | 20:34 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.33 | +0.41 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Anton Lundell C | 17:30 | +0.36 | +0.15 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 26:24 | 2 | +0.32 | +0.29 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 19:16 | 3 | +0.15 | +0.25 | −0.36 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Niko Mikkola D | 23:03 | +0.10 | +0.15 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 20:27 | +0.09 | +0.12 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| A.J. Greer L | 10:07 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.14 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Brad Marchand L | 16:14 | +0.04 | +0.16 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 9:50 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 17:11 | +0.00 | +0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 15:24 | −0.05 | +0.08 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Jesper Boqvist C | 10:07 | −0.06 | +0.15 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Mackie Samoskevich R | 15:43 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.13 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Gustav Forsling D | 26:11 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Donovan Sebrango D | 10:29 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 17:14 | −0.27 | +0.08 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 71:50 | −2.73 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Schaefer D | 23:17 | 2 | 1 | +1.35 | −0.09 | +1.65 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Carson Soucy D | 14:57 | 1 | +0.77 | −0.04 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bo Horvat C | 20:24 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.06 | +0.71 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Anders Lee C | 15:00 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.13 | +0.72 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle MacLean C | 10:47 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Gatcomb C | 10:45 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 20:58 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Calum Ritchie C | 13:20 | −0.19 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 17:09 | −0.21 | −0.10 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 17:45 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.11 | −0.34 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Casey Cizikas C | 11:55 | −0.25 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 21:34 | 2 | −0.27 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Emil Heineman L | 14:28 | −0.28 | −0.27 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 15:16 | 1 | −0.28 | +0.04 | −0.37 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Pulock D | 22:12 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 16:28 | −0.34 | −0.05 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Simon Holmstrom R | 16:17 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.17 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Duclair L | 13:22 | −0.50 | −0.30 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| David Rittich G | 60:00 | −0.83 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.