SJS beat EDM 5–4. SJS also won the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 3.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Shakir Mukhamadullin scored at 9:27 of the third, moving SJS’s win probability from 52% to 83%. Yaroslav Askarov allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:34 | SJS | Macklin Celebrini from Will Smith | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 11:07 | SJS | Michael MisaPP from Tyler Toffoli | 0–2 | 71% → 84% |
| P1 14:51 |  EDM | Leon DraisaitlPP from Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard | 1–2 | 16% → 29% |
| P1 17:05 | SJS | Barclay Goodrow from Zack Ostapchuk, John Klingberg | 1–3 | 71% → 85% |
| P2 15:49 | EDM | Evan Bouchard from Connor McDavid, Mattias Ekholm | 2–3 | 10% → 25% |
| P3 2:54 | EDM | Trent Frederic from Matt Savoie | 3–3 | 22% → 48% |
| P3 5:30 | SJS | Alexander Wennberg from Philipp Kurashev, Mario Ferraro | 3–4 | 52% → 80% |
| P3 7:13 | EDM | Jake Walman from Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard | 4–4 | 19% → 48% |
| P3 9:27 | SJS | Shakir Mukhamadullin from William Eklund, Michael Misa | 4–5 | 52% → 83% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Frederic C | 12:38 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.07 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Evan Bouchard D | 23:24 | 1 | 2 | +0.63 | +0.09 | +0.54 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jake Walman D | 20:51 | 1 | +0.49 | −0.25 | +0.78 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Leon Draisaitl C | 21:47 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.15 | +0.04 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Hyman L | 20:57 | +0.14 | +0.16 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 18:45 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ty Emberson D | 15:45 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Lazar C | 9:09 | −0.02 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 21:34 | 3 | −0.04 | +0.11 | −0.26 | +0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 10:20 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 17:37 | −0.09 | +0.09 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 21:37 | −0.15 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 11:32 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Matt Savoie C | 13:34 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Spencer Stastney D | 16:21 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 14:10 | −0.25 | −0.25 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 13:32 | −0.32 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Jack Roslovic C | 14:44 | −0.39 | −0.13 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Ingram G | 68:06 | −1.03 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shakir Mukhamadullin D | 18:27 | 1 | +1.04 | +0.18 | +0.87 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Macklin Celebrini C | 21:17 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.19 | +0.29 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.04 | |
| Barclay Goodrow C | 11:49 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.06 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Alexander Wennberg C | 18:30 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.21 | +0.72 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Michael Misa C | 12:16 | 1 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.17 | +0.33 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| William Eklund L | 14:31 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.20 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| John Klingberg D | 19:15 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.11 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mario Ferraro D | 21:11 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitry Orlov D | 22:17 | +0.02 | +0.12 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Smith C | 18:43 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.23 | −0.23 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Pavol Regenda L | 10:48 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Dickinson D | 15:17 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 11:07 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.14 | −0.29 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Philipp Kurashev C | 13:32 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Vincent Desharnais D | 20:01 | −0.21 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack Ostapchuk C | 10:19 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.04 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Collin Graf R | 16:59 | −0.32 | −0.20 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 19:00 | −0.69 | +0.25 | −0.74 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Yaroslav Askarov G | 69:51 | −1.32 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.