BUF beat FLA 3–2. Expected goals were close to even (BUF 3.5, FLA 3.7), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Beck Malenstyn scored at 11:38 of the third, moving BUF’s win probability from 48% to 83%. Daniil Tarasov saved 2.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 17:48 |  BUF | Alex TuchPP from Ryan McLeod, Bowen Byram | 1–0 | 48% → 65% |
| P2 13:51 |  FLA | Matthew TkachukPP from Brad Marchand, Sam Bennett | 1–1 | 31% → 53% |
| P3 11:38 | BUF | Beck Malenstyn from Josh Norris, Noah Ostlund | 2–1 | 48% → 83% |
| P3 18:43 | BUF | Peyton KrebsEN from Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch | 3–1 | 93% → 100% |
| P3 19:25 | FLA | Sam BennettPP unassisted | 3–2 | 0% → 4% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beck Malenstyn L | 10:57 | 1 | +0.41 | −0.09 | +0.70 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 19:23 | 1 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.02 | +0.26 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Bowen Byram D | 23:42 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.20 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Peyton Krebs C | 14:37 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.19 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Zach Metsa D | 8:17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 23:42 | −0.08 | +0.08 | −0.21 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 14:35 | −0.09 | +0.18 | −0.30 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 19:39 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.08 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Noah Ostlund C | 14:23 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.13 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 25:04 | −0.16 | +0.10 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Dunne C | 9:44 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 15:58 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Jason Zucker L | 15:52 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Power D | 23:46 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Norris C | 17:46 | 1 | −0.29 | +0.11 | −0.34 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Josh Doan R | 16:23 | −0.30 | +0.06 | −0.57 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Kozak C | 12:25 | −0.38 | −0.15 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Michael Kesselring D | 12:19 | −0.48 | −0.27 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon G | 60:00 | +1.71 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bennett C | 21:19 | 1 | 1 | +0.85 | −0.00 | +0.62 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.04 |
| Donovan Sebrango D | 10:23 | +0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sandis Vilmanis L | 10:51 | +0.07 | +0.13 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 27:18 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 21:34 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anton Lundell C | 16:43 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 25:29 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 15:09 | −0.07 | +0.12 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 16:24 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 9:08 | −0.11 | +0.09 | −0.22 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Uvis Balinskis D | 9:00 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mackie Samoskevich R | 12:49 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 17:36 | −0.22 | −0.20 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.10 | ||
| A.J. Greer L | 11:32 | −0.30 | +0.23 | −0.32 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 22:24 | −0.34 | −0.05 | −0.27 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 17:21 | −0.35 | −0.33 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Marchand L | 16:10 | 1 | −0.44 | +0.16 | −0.62 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gustav Forsling D | 23:51 | −0.61 | −0.11 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Daniil Tarasov G | 70:09 | +2.14 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.