NSH beat CHI 4–2. NSH lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 2.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Ryan O'Reilly scored at 16:44 of the third, moving NSH’s win probability from 51% to 91%. Justus Annunen saved 1.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CHI–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:50 | NSH | Filip Forsberg unassisted | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 4:13 |  CHI | Connor Bedard from Ryan Greene | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P3 3:16 | CHI | Tyler BertuzziPP from Teuvo Teravainen, Sam Rinzel | 2–1 | 49% → 74% |
| P3 7:12 | NSH | Matthew WoodPP from Erik Haula | 2–2 | 23% → 52% |
| P3 16:44 | NSH | Ryan O'Reilly from Roman Josi | 2–3 | 51% → 91% |
| P3 19:12 | NSH | Steven StamkosEN unassisted | 2–4 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 17:56 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.15 | +0.40 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Bedard C | 21:29 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.18 | +0.07 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Greene C | 16:44 | 1 | +0.14 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Murphy D | 15:12 | +0.13 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Moore C | 12:54 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artyom Levshunov D | 17:47 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Vlasic D | 22:39 | −0.07 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Louis Crevier D | 17:11 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Dickinson C | 13:44 | −0.11 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Landon Slaggert L | 9:58 | −0.11 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 16:16 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Rinzel D | 20:53 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.05 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Donato C | 11:55 | −0.14 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 17:08 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 14:07 | −0.15 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 19:49 | 1 | −0.31 | +0.07 | −0.40 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Frank Nazar C | 18:13 | −0.34 | +0.13 | −0.46 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Foligno L | 14:55 | −0.39 | −0.11 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Knight G | 78:53 | −0.43 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 18:40 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.11 | +0.46 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Matthew Wood R | 12:17 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.20 | +0.81 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Filip Forsberg L | 17:40 | 1 | +0.36 | −0.04 | +0.40 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Roman Josi D | 25:25 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Hague D | 22:03 | +0.09 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary L'Heureux L | 9:45 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 17:17 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 13:20 | −0.03 | +0.07 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick Blankenburg D | 19:52 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 14:23 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Luke Evangelista R | 14:20 | −0.13 | +0.17 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Smith L | 16:20 | −0.16 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 15:56 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Adam Wilsby D | 14:02 | −0.18 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 11:28 | −0.19 | +0.04 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 14:54 | 1 | −0.31 | +0.05 | −0.39 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Nick Perbix D | 19:57 | −0.34 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 14:40 | −0.40 | −0.06 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Justus Annunen G | 60:00 | +1.17 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.