BOS beat CBJ 4–2. BOS lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 4.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Morgan Geekie scored on the power play at 6:54 of the second, moving BOS’s win probability from 54% to 73%. Joonas Korpisalo saved 2.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–BOS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:32 | CBJ | Kirill Marchenko from Mason Marchment, Adam Fantilli | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 15:51 |  BOS | Viktor Arvidsson from Jonathan Aspirot | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 6:54 | BOS | Morgan GeekiePP from David Pastrnak, Elias Lindholm | 1–2 | 54% → 73% |
| P3 11:15 | BOS | Sean Kuraly from Tanner Jeannot | 1–3 | 84% → 97% |
| P3 13:45 | CBJ | Adam Fantilli from Mason Marchment, Zach Werenski | 2–3 | 2% → 13% |
| P3 19:27 | BOS | Viktor ArvidssonEN from Charlie McAvoy, Casey Mittelstadt | 2–4 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Fantilli C | 19:09 | 1 | 1 | +0.45 | −0.01 | +0.43 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Kirill Marchenko R | 19:43 | 1 | +0.41 | −0.01 | +0.62 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Damon Severson D | 22:31 | +0.35 | +0.45 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 16:33 | +0.19 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 15:20 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 14:56 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Boone Jenner C | 12:57 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.06 | ||
| Isac Lundeström C | 11:40 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Denton Mateychuk D | 16:43 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 14:51 | −0.10 | +0.17 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 19:43 | −0.12 | +0.06 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Marchment L | 18:32 | 2 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 12:06 | −0.19 | +0.21 | −0.40 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Zach Werenski D | 28:34 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.35 | −0.59 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Miles Wood L | 10:07 | −0.32 | +0.04 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kent Johnson C | 12:28 | −0.34 | +0.09 | −0.42 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 17:12 | −0.39 | +0.15 | −0.52 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mathieu Olivier R | 13:42 | −0.57 | +0.17 | −0.72 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 67:48 | −1.07 |
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 14:29 | 2 | +0.82 | −0.04 | +0.86 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Geekie C | 17:50 | 1 | +0.77 | −0.07 | +0.82 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Sean Kuraly C | 12:42 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.18 | +0.75 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Fraser Minten C | 15:19 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Henri Jokiharju D | 16:18 | +0.02 | −0.12 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Aspirot D | 21:11 | 1 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marat Khusnutdinov C | 12:50 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Zacha C | 15:29 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Mason Lohrei D | 17:25 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie McAvoy D | 23:55 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Hampus Lindholm D | 20:16 | −0.16 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 17:39 | −0.19 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Pastrnak R | 22:20 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.10 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Kastelic C | 11:45 | −0.21 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 15:40 | 1 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tanner Jeannot L | 13:14 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.28 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Eyssimont C | 10:03 | −0.42 | +0.00 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 19:35 | 1 | −0.54 | −0.18 | −0.39 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joonas Korpisalo G | 60:56 | +2.35 |
| Michael DiPietro G | 6:03 | +0.32 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.