VGK beat LAK 6–4. Expected goals were close to even (VGK 2.5, LAK 2.4), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Brandon Saad scored at 11:16 of the third, moving VGK’s win probability from 48% to 81%. Anton Forsberg allowed 3.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–LAK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:59 |  VGK | Pavel Dorofeyev from Tanner Laczynski, Reilly Smith | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 14:31 |  LAK | Quinton ByfieldPP from Artemi Panarin, Brandt Clarke | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 14:44 | LAK | Adrian Kempe from Anze Kopitar, Artemi Panarin | 1–2 | 53% → 75% |
| P3 8:07 | VGK | Colton Sissons from Braeden Bowman, Adin Hill | 2–2 | 19% → 48% |
| P3 11:16 | VGK | Brandon Saad from Colton Sissons, Alexander Holtz | 3–2 | 48% → 81% |
| P3 12:21 | VGK | Reilly Smith from Tanner Laczynski, Brayden McNabb | 4–2 | 83% → 97% |
| P3 13:26 | LAK | Quinton Byfield from Andrei Kuzmenko | 4–3 | 2% → 16% |
| P3 15:59 | VGK | Pavel DorofeyevPP from Tanner Laczynski, Braeden Bowman | 5–3 | 89% → 99% |
| P3 18:54 | LAK | Brandt ClarkePP from Adrian Kempe, Andrei Kuzmenko | 5–4 | 0% → 5% |
| P3 19:32 | VGK | Ivan BarbashevEN from Tomas Hertl, Brayden McNabb | 6–4 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 17:29 | 2 | +0.78 | −0.04 | +0.81 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Sissons C | 13:23 | 1 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.10 | +0.42 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Tanner Laczynski C | 15:43 | 3 | +0.57 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.60 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Brandon Saad L | 13:35 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.09 | +0.35 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Reilly Smith R | 15:30 | 1 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.02 | +0.43 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 21:30 | +0.39 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Braeden Bowman R | 13:13 | 2 | +0.29 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.38 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Hutton D | 14:42 | +0.20 | +0.14 | −0.02 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Coghlan D | 15:15 | +0.19 | +0.14 | −0.01 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 21:18 | 2 | +0.11 | +0.05 | −0.10 | +0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kaedan Korczak D | 21:13 | +0.09 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Holtz R | 14:10 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.16 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tomas Hertl C | 18:58 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.09 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 18:24 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Cole Reinhardt L | 11:25 | +0.02 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 17:12 | −0.00 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kai Uchacz C | 12:38 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 23:42 | −0.20 | +0.04 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Adin Hill G | 60:00 | −1.50 |
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandt Clarke D | 19:20 | 1 | 1 | +0.80 | −0.15 | +0.85 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Quinton Byfield R | 21:08 | 2 | +0.68 | +0.14 | +0.53 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Anze Kopitar C | 17:28 | 1 | +0.33 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.22 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 13:35 | 2 | +0.31 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.21 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Adrian Kempe R | 22:20 | 1 | 1 | +0.11 | −0.03 | +0.20 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brian Dumoulin D | 17:11 | +0.07 | +0.13 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Moore L | 14:03 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Doughty D | 21:10 | −0.00 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikey Anderson D | 20:12 | −0.08 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artemi Panarin L | 21:05 | 2 | −0.12 | +0.05 | −0.20 | +0.24 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Cody Ceci D | 19:21 | −0.12 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Edmundson D | 18:06 | −0.22 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Laferriere R | 18:23 | −0.22 | +0.04 | −0.21 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Helenius C | 10:31 | −0.25 | −0.22 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Corey Perry R | 10:34 | −0.27 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 14:33 | −0.29 | −0.20 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Turcotte C | 12:57 | −0.32 | −0.21 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 12:42 | −0.43 | −0.40 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anton Forsberg G | 68:04 | −3.28 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.